Donald Trump imposes American hegemony

Is a coup sufficient to define a policy? Is the spectacular capture of Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in Caracas on the night of January 2 to 3, part of a broader plan? While Secretary of State Marco Rubio presented the raid as a “police operation” against “a fugitive”, President Donald Trump asserts, without specification, Washington’s intention to “manage the country”, an oil sponge, almost twice the size of France, and populated by around thirty million inhabitants.

Incarcerated in New York, Nicolas Maduro, current president of Venezuela – whose re-election in July 2024, tainted by massive fraud, had not been recognized by Western states – was indicted by American justice for, in particular, his alleged collusion with “some of the most violent and prolific drug traffickers and narcoterrorists in the world”. He had been wanted since 2020, under the Biden administration.

China, India and Iran are targeted

The American intervention caused a shock wave that went beyond the walls of the Miraflores Palace, the residence of the Venezuelan head of state. Its legality under international law is debated, although the United States maintains that it is an action of self-defense. Above all, the operation is fully in line with the new “national security doctrine” made public before Christmas. The American continent is presented as a priority sphere of influence to be reconquered: “Competitors from outside our hemisphere have opened routes there, today to our detriment on the economic level, and perhaps in the future on the strategic level.”

The targets are China and its commercial ambitions (a few hours before his capture, Maduro was still receiving high-ranking Chinese diplomats), Russia, whose war against Ukraine received the support of the Venezuelan regime, and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Venezuela would serve, according to the US Treasury, as a hub for circumventing sanctions against Iran and financing pro-Iranian Hezbollah. But the European Union is also in the crosshairs, engaged in negotiating a free trade agreement with Mercosur and challenged by the Trumpian claim on Greenland, today under Danish sovereignty. The raid on Caracas also shattered European unity: Madrid condemns, Rome supports, Berlin is cautious and, in Paris, Emmanuel Macron welcomed the fall of Maduro and called for support for the democratic opposition.

By reaffirming its desire to make the American continent its sole preserve and to fight against narcotics, including by force, Washington is placing all Latin American countries under pressure. Donald Trump urges Maduro’s replacement, Vice-President Delcy Rodriguez, to “cooperate” unless “paying a high price”, pushes Mexico to “do something” in the fight against cartels and warns the President of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, to “watch his ass” because “he has cocaine factories in his country”. Since October, the latter, with his wife and eldest son, has been the target of sanctions by the US Treasury. Finally, Washington threatened Cuba, an ally of Maduro, which denounced “state terrorism” of the United States. Without the vital support of Venezuelan oil from which it has benefited until today, the communist regime risks collapse like never before since the end of the Soviet Union.

The black gold of the Orinoco

This oil from the Orinoco basin is at the heart of American interests. Within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Venezuela is home to the largest reserves (24%), ahead of Saudi Arabia, and represents 17% of the world total. But the expropriation of American oil groups carried out under Hugo Chavez in 2007 has permanently weakened the sector: due to a lack of investment and skills, production is today less than a million barrels per day, three times less than twenty years ago.

Resuming mass production would not only allow the majors to make a lot of money, as Donald Trump mentioned with a mixture of candor and cynicism, to supply the American refineries in the Gulf of Mexico designed to process this heavy oil, but also to weigh on the world market. Seen from Washington, a rebound in Venezuelan black gold production would have the advantage of bypassing Russian and Iranian oil by lowering prices at the pump and offering an alternative. A dream? “If everything went well, it would still take five to seven years to restart production in Venezuela,” warns Thomas O’Donnell, expert at the Wilson Center in Washington. No matter, with Donald Trump, fantasy has the force of reality.