towards a peace agreement in 2026? Donbass at the heart of the discussions
As each anniversary approaches, a question arises. Will this February 24 be the last under the din of bombs in Ukraine? The year 2026 is distinguished by its introduction. kyiv, Moscow and Washington have officially been holding discussions on ending the war since January. After the United Arab Emirates, new talks were expected in Geneva (Switzerland), subject to Moscow’s agreement.
The conflict is at a military stalemate. Russia controls around 20% of Ukrainian territory. But its advance is measured in square kilometers and, for a year, Russian forces have been progressing slowly. Faced with them, Ukraine buried itself. In 2025, kyiv had hundreds of kilometers of fortification lines built (trenches, bunkers, anti-tank ditches, etc.). A defense that slows down the enemy, but freezes the front. The main Ukrainian challenge is human. The army is struggling to renew its personnel. The average age of soldiers is increasing and mobilization arouses resistance. According to an American study*, the cumulative military losses (killed, wounded or missing) of the two countries could approach 2 million by spring 2026.
Demilitarize Donbass
Can this war of attrition end this year? Donald Trump has once again decided to put an end to it. According to Volodymyr Zelensky, he would have set the deadline for June 2026. Under what terms? The future of Donbass, the scene of clashes since 2014, is the thorny question. The Ukrainian president would have accepted the idea of a demilitarized zone, modeled on the separation line between the two Koreas. But Vladimir Putin will have difficulty conceding such an agreement, a large part of Donbass being already under Russian control. The Kremlin must return from this war with at least this territory in its pocket.
For the moment, the balance of power leans towards the Russian side. Moscow remains in the initiative, has a larger human reservoir, and its economy is a war machine. kyiv depends closely on European support and the volatile arbitrations of Donald Trump. The Europeans also fear that it will impose a peace agreement decreeing the complete loss of Donbass. In the Emirates, Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine must be “involved” in the agreements. Otherwise, we will have to consider celebrating the fifth anniversary of the Russian invasion next year…
* Center for strategic and international studies.
