challenges, reactions and perspectives of peace

This year, the 80th session of the General Assembly of the United Nations, scheduled for September 9 to 21 in New York (United States), promises to be decisive. While the Israeli army tightens its noose on the Gaza Strip, that a new colonization project in the West Bank has just been validated by the Netanyahu government and that a forty Israeli hostages are still retained by Hamas, the recognition of a Palestinian state resurfaces.

While more than 140 countries have already taken the plunge, a historic rocking is looming: for the first time, great Western powers – France, the United Kingdom, Canada – are preparing to formalize their support. At the origin of this diplomatic initiative, Emmanuel Macron, who intends to relaunch the two -state solution, long relegated to the rank of illusions. An approach immediately conspired by Benyamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump. There remains a central question: can this gesture really cause the creation of a Palestinian state and, above all, offer the two peoples a perspective of peace?

1. What can this recognition change?

Recognizing a state is first to assert the right of peoples to dispose of themselves. For Palestine, this gesture would have two effects: on the bilateral level, he would place his relations with France on an equality of state in state, with embassies and official agreements; On the international level, it would strengthen its legitimacy in the debates. But Palestine would not become a full member of the UN. Since 2012, it has a non-member observer state status: it can express themselves in plenary session but has neither the right to vote in the general meeting nor possibility of applying for the organization’s bodies.

“If, at the end of this general assembly, a Palestinian state is recognized, it will not yet be integrated into the UN,” explains Alexandra Novosseloff, looking for Use- associated with the Thucydide Center of Panthéon-Assas University. For this, the question should be voted on the UN Security Council with at least nine votes over the fifteen turning members and no veto of the five permanent members. However, the result is already certain: the United States, permanent member, would activate its veto.

“The only possible unlocking would be the establishment of talks between a new Israeli government and the Palestinian authority,” said Frédéric Plél, doctor of geopolitics and author of World War will not take place (Odile Jacob). Pending such negotiations, this vast movement of recognition of Palestine can make it possible to relaunch the debates towards a solution to two states: a Palestinian state and an Israeli state, cohabitant in peace.

2. Why does Emmanuel Macron make this decision now?

Since the start of the war in Gaza in retaliation for the massacres of October 7, 2023, Emmanuel Macron finds himself faced with a deeply divided French opinion. On the one hand, demonstrations brought by leftist political parties and associative circles demand recognition of Palestine. On the other, part of the Jewish community speaks of “a moral fault, a diplomatic error and a political danger”, in the words of the representative council of the Jewish institutions of France (CRIF).

Several figures of the right, such as the president of the Senate, Gérard Larcher, or the deputy Laurent Wauquiez, criticize a gesture which can be interpreted as a victory of Hamas. The president had prepared the spirits last April, after a trip to Egypt, where he had met injuries Gazaouis. “It is a nice diplomatic gesture, it is indisputable, because the United Kingdom and other Western powers have followed,” says Frédéric Enl. There remains a question: can recognition go beyond the symbol? Some politicians and NGOs are advocating for Paris to push the European Union to review its association agreement with Israel, of which it is the first economic partner, by conditioning exchanges to respect international law.

5. What will become Gaza?

Difficult to imagine the future of the enclave at a time when the UN has just declared a state of famine. On August 20, the Israeli government validated a plan to conquer the entire territory, already 75 %controlled. To think about the post-conflict, Benyamin Netanyahu offers Gaza a civil administration without Hamas or the Palestinian authority.

“It is irrational,” says Frédéric Enfl. The Palestinian authority is the only one to be able to administer Palestine because it was created according to the rules of international law. ” Does the Israeli government have another project in mind? Within it, several ministers claim that all of Palestine must return to Israel. “These leaders want to annex Gaza and push the population to leave by making the humanitarian situation intolerable,” says Thomas Vescovi. The Ministry of Defense even announced the creation of an agency for the “voluntary departure” of the Gazaouis. ”

In order to prevent the exodus, Egypt and several countries in the Middle East work on a Gaza reconstruction plan, financially by the Gulf monarchies and private donors. To govern the enclave, a committee of technocrats would oversee humanitarian aid before the return to power of the Palestinian authority. But has this $ 53 billion project a chance while the Israeli government threatens to move Gazaouis? Such an attempt at risk of diving the Middle East in a new conflict and ruining all hope of peace.