The earth threatened by an asteroid in 2032? Alert scientists
On December 22, 2032, an asteroid could hit the earth. The collision would be able to destroy an area the size of a metropolis or a region. Fortunately, such a calamity – the only type of avoidable natural disaster – has only about 1 % probability of occurring. This is the threshold from which scientists trigger the alert mechanism. They have three months to observe the asteroid YR4 before it comes out of their field of vision. The researchers have taken time to convince the states of the need to prevent these kinds of disasters. “In the 2000s, the idea of detecting and diverting asteroids with the trajectory capable of crossing that of the earth made policies smile,” recalls Ian Carnelli, scientist at the European Space Agency (ESA) and expert on the subject Since 2005. Today, the United States, Europe and Japan have subsidized research.
“In 1994, when a comet struck Jupiter, this first observation of a collision in space marked the spirits,” says Ian Carnelli. In the United States, Congress then asks NASA to spot objects approaching our planet. In Europe, the first “planetary defense” program will be set up in 2011. Two years later, on February 15, 2013, the UN launched two international scientific missions. The same day, an asteroid explodes above Russia. “This irony of fate has focused the attention and supported our words,” comments the American Tim Spahr, who pilots the international asteroid alert network IAWN.
International collaboration
Privileged prevention remains deviation. In 2022, great first: the Dart space probe, sent by NASA, struck the asteroid Dimorphos and changed its trajectory. Since October, the European probe Hera has been on the way to take the measures of the impact in order to be able to reproduce this technique with other celestial objects. “Today we are ready to divert small asteroids,” says Ian Carnelli, project manager.
But for that, it is necessary to provide different ways of proceeding, depending on the characteristics of the identified element. “For example, do we have time to send a recognition mission or do we directly try to deflect the asteroid in question?” “Explains Patrick Michel, scientific manager of the Hera mission and member of the IAWN. “This subject has the advantage of not having political limits, all countries participate in a very constructive way,” welcomes Ian Carnelli.
Efficient way to have scientists from around the world cooperate, planetary defense has made it possible to refine the knowledge of these “planets bricks”. “These are the best tracers in the history of the solar system,” insists Patrick Michel, also the author of To meet asteroids. States have also received their economic interest. Who knows if, in ten or twenty years, we will not go to dig mines on asteroids?
