What Europeans will win or lose

It’s done. Twenty-six years after the launch of negotiations, the European Commission finally announced, on September 3, 2025, a “historic” free trade agreement between the European Union (EU) and the Common South America market (Mercosur, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia, 82 % of the South American continent in total). Between the agreement in principle signed in December 2019 and the final conclusion acted last week, almost six years have passed.

If this treaty, which aims to eliminate 90 % of customs duties on products exchanged between the two commercial blocks, has been the subject of such bargaining, it is because the issue is considerable. First, it creates one of the largest free trade zones in the world with more than 700 million consumers. Then, the opening of borders should stimulate international trade, in the foreground in the food industry, with winners and, perhaps, losers.

France presents a contrasting situation. Producers of high -end wines and spirits or cheeses (including the protected geographical indication – IGP – will now be recognized in Latin America), as our food industry, should take advantage of this new market. Ox farmers and beets are concerned about Brazilian competition.

Agricultural organizations denounce the use, on the other side of the Atlantic, of growth hormones and prohibited pesticides in Europe. In response, the Commission provides for “safeguarding measures” to temporarily restore reinforced quotas and controls if an exceptional increase in imports caused serious damage to the production of one of the partners. But these are deemed illusory in French agricultural circles.

Large profit across the Rhine

For German industry, on the contrary, the agreement represents only advantages. Its automotive branch, which is now a 35 %customs rate, will be immediately beneficial, with a reduced rate dedicated to disappear. The sectors of the machine-tool and chemistry, where German companies succeed, will also see their rates drop. And they will benefit from Brazil’s commitment not to impose export rights to the EU on its critical raw materials (titanium, nickel, etc.) essential to the across the Rhine industry.

For others too, this treaty is positive. Belgian chocolate, clothing made in Italy, olive oil in southern Europe will be cheaper in South American supermarkets and should gain market share.

Wanted as a response to Donald Trump’s protectionism, this new free trade treaty will increase the EU to the area almost 50 %, promises Brussels. Since its application in 2017, the European agreement with Canada (CETA), has resulted in a tripling of the agrifood surplus for the benefit of France. And he did not lead to French farming the disaster feared by the most pessimistic. Can this pink scenario repeat itself?