a strategic concession from Zelensky?
In his office illuminated by a fir tree, Volodymyr Zelensky presents his people with his best wishes for 2026. With his back straight, his hands crossed, this solemn speech resonates above all as a justification of the current peace plan: “I do not want to disappoint the Ukrainian people…” A week earlier, Ukraine seemed ready for a major concession: to withdraw its troops from Donbass, a key territory in the east of the country, mostly occupied by the Russian army, to establish a demilitarized zone there. A hitherto impassable red line, recalled during his last trip to the area in November. “This is our state, this is our East. We will do everything to ensure that it remains Ukrainian,” he told the soldiers at the front. So why such a strategic shift?
Donbass: why Zelensky is considering a military concession
Donbass alone symbolizes the wear and tear and dead ends of war. Since 2014, this region has been the scene of a continuous conflict, triggered by the offensive of pro-Russian armed groups against several Ukrainian cities. Today, kyiv only controls a fraction, while the prolonged military effort exhausts men and resources. In a difficult position therefore, Volodymyr Zelensky seeks to reactivate the support of Donald Trump, determined to close the Ukrainian file. His benevolence has become a central strategic lever. Hence the acceptance, constrained but calculated, of the American proposal for a demilitarized zone, inspired by the Korean model and strictly controlled by international observers in order to prevent any intrusion by belligerent troops.
“The Ukrainian president understood that Trump was going to impose the occupation of Donbass, so, with the help of the Europeans, he found a trick to get around the obstacle,” explains Guillaume Ancel, former officer, war chronicler and author of the blog Do Not Suffer. Certainly, Ukraine sits on an industrial territory rich in mining and gas resources and leaves the fate of the approximately 200,000 remaining Ukrainians up in the air. It is also a highly strategic defense territory, as in the days of fortified castles: high viewpoints with urban areas to ensure exhausting battles for the enemy while the rest of Ukraine resembles more vulnerable plains for the troops.
But in seeking to satisfy Donald Trump, kyiv is playing a balancing act: having its population accept such a concession. An unthinkable prospect for many Ukrainians, especially among former soldiers. Ivan, barely forty, returned from the front severely disabled. This veteran fought in Donbass, experienced rain of shells and saw his comrades die on the battlefield. “Let Trump give Alaska to Russia first, then we’ll see!” » he says, bitterly. He fears that a truce will only whet the appetite of the Kremlin, which will only heal its wounds the day Ukraine is entirely liberated.
Volodymyr Zelensky plays watch
In his address to the Ukrainians, Volodymyr Zelensky wanted to be reassuring: “Signatures under weak agreements only fuel the war. » Assured him that only firm guarantees, extending over several years, even decades, would satisfy him. This is the whole challenge of the “coalition of the willing”, an international alliance meeting on January 6, 2026 in Paris to discuss the modalities. Several thousand French soldiers could be deployed to ensure compliance with the ceasefire according to Emmanuel Macron.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin, with his back to the wall, is attempting desperate actions – going so far as to accuse Ukraine without evidence of having wanted to attack one of his villas – to make himself appear to Donald Trump as a victim. Because he needs this close relationship, and always inexplicable in the eyes of the world, to reduce aid to Ukraine.
In this context, the Ukrainian president knows well that the Kremlin does not want negotiations and even less lose the possibility of planting its flag everywhere in Donbass. Zelensky then leads a diplomatic war to gain time. “For six months, the Ukrainians have been building infrastructure and fortifications behind the front line, on the great plain, to prepare for the next move by the Russians,” explains Stéphane Audrand, international risk consultant, skeptical about the outcome of the peace process. “He is especially waiting for the mid-term elections in the United States, hoping that the Democrats will win Congress and put pressure on Trump,” he continues. The war of attrition risks continuing until November 2026 and, until then, Volodymyr Zelensky must continue to sit back.
