An isolated and fragmented Sahel

First there were putsches toppling three imperfect democraciesthe dismissal of French troops, then the rise in Russian influence, and now their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), announced for January 28, 2025: Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, one of the poorest countries in the world, united in a “Confederation of Sahel States”, is turning its back on this alliance, the only major regional entity with democratic ambitions. A very negative signal of further fragmentation in a continent afflicted by wars.

“We forgot to say thank you”castigated Emmanuel Macron over the withdrawal of French troops and the break with the former colonizer. Let us remember: Operation Serval, now Barkhane, aimed to push back the jihadist push coming from the north. Although it relatively contained the threat, 58 French soldiers were killed. With its fake news, Russian cyberwar subsequently had no trouble throwing demonstrators into the streets of Bamako, Ouagadougou or Niamey: the person responsible for the crisis and its deaths was… France, of course .

Today, the armies of these countries are supported by the Russian Wagner militia, renamed Africa Corps. However, things are not going well. Against a backdrop of abuses and demotivated soldiers, the jihadists, far from backing down, are showing themselves to be more threatening than ever.

If we paint a broad regional picturethere are on one side jihadists divided among themselves – not to mention the Tuareg rebels – and on the other, villagers victims of reprisals, as well as governments devoid of democratic foundations. Without forgetting, behind the scenes, powerful foreign economic interests. Because these countries have strategic mineral wealth: lithium, uranium, gold. Russian, and, more skillfully, Chinese, companies began to oust Western companies. The laws of the Kalashnikov and predations risk weighing ever more heavily on these endearing Sahelian peoples.