Russian incursions: should Europe retaliate?
MIG-31s which fly over Estonia, swarms of drones in Romania, Poland, and above several Danish airports. Since the beginning of September 2025, the violations of the airspace of several European countries have multiplied.
The looks turn to Moscow, which denies any involvement. Emmanuel Macron wants the NATO response to “rises from a notch”; Donald Trump judges that the countries concerned should shoot down the Russian devices. For the moment, Europe wonders where to place the cursor. A maximalist response would lead to climbing, but the reverse would encourage Russia to continue. How far reacts?
“We must always keep in mind the Ukrainian context. The Russians want the 6,000 km2 they lack in Donbass to announce a victory. Except that in the state, this territory represents two years of war. So Vladimir Putin says: “You give them to me, and I stop” “analyzes Guillaume Ancel, former officer and war columnist.
The Russian president plays intimidation. Europeans, who finance a large part of the Ukrainian war effort, are the ideal target. “The Russians know that Europe is afraid of fighting. Look, we even hesitate to shoot down a drone, ”continues Guillaume Ancel.
Recent attacks are of low intensity. They impress but are based on a limited number of small devices, or flash passages of fighter planes. They mainly serve diplomatic and operational tools. “It is the strategy of the frog: we plunge the animal into a pan of cold water and we heat it slowly. So, the frog does not realize that it is simmering,” decrypts Cyrille Bret, specialist in defense questions at the Montaigne Institute. According to him, Europeans must succeed in lowering the temperature, while remaining firm: the Russian doctrine is proactive and graduated, not an adventurist.
The urgency to treat thresholds
“Putin’s army does not today have the means to attack a large European country – we will see in three years. It is consumed by Ukraine, ”adds Guillaume Ancel. Hence the importance of reading these incidents as tests and not as invasion preparations.
But the situation can change: if we go to massive waves of high altitude drones, or to deep incursions of fighter planes, the answer should be different. “They will have to be cut down, admits Cyrille Bret, after numerous summons and according to clear commitment rules established in advance.”
There is an urgency to draw thresholds. The “antidron wall” mentioned by Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, is perplexed. Because Russian drones do not start from Moscow. They are transported by trucks or ships, and activated by operators on site. The rest of the scenario is pending. Who will make the price for Russian incursions? Paris, Berlin? Military experts evoke the Baltic countries.
After the recent integration of Sweden and Finland into NATO, Russia might want to test this space in priority. But between panic and provocation, there is a way: a clear and displayed deterrent line. You just have to make the transgression expensive to prevent the frog from finishing scalded.
