The COPs seek to renew the fading dynamism of the Paris agreements

“He is beaten by the waves but does not sink” ( “Fluctuat nec mergitur» ). The motto of the city of Paris could be applied to the historic climate agreement which bears its name and which will celebrate its tenth anniversary this December 12. Geopolitical and commercial tensions, the decline of international law, climate skeptic attacks from the United States threaten the implementation of this text based on cooperation between the 194 signatory countries.

However, the Paris Agreement remains the centerpiece of global climate governance: the COPs are the annual stages, responsible for monitoring its implementation and maintaining collective momentum.

Consensus, a blockage

In the final decision of COP30, which concluded on November 22 in Belém, Brazil, the States affirm that the framework of this agreement remains valid and that the transition to low-emission development is irreversible. In fact, the Paris Agreement made it possible to change the trajectory of global warming by 2100, which went from +4°C to +2.8°C*. However, much remains to be done to achieve its central objective: stabilizing the climate between +1.5°C and +2°C maximum.

On this point, the last COP leaves a bitter taste. It has failed to deliver on the commitments targeted by the Brazilian presidency. Example: the road map to organize a gradual exit from fossil fuels. “The majority of countries were in favor of it, but Saudi Arabia, Russia and India strongly opposed it,” explains Sandrine Maljean-Dubois, research director at CNRS. As the rule is consensus, with each country having one vote, the decision was not adopted. At 194, it’s very complicated. The COPs are essential: the climate concerns all of humanity. But they show their limits.”

How can we change them so that the Paris agreement has a chance of really being implemented? Many avenues are on the table, such as the move to majority voting. “Consensus has become a tool of obstruction. We need a model where the majority can act,” argues Mads Christensen, director of Greenpeace International. The demand is not new, but still comes up against the fact that this change of rule should be adopted… unanimously by the countries. Another avenue: the formation of a coalition of willing countries. In Belém, Colombia and the Netherlands proposed working on the road map on phasing out fossil fuels, joined, to date, by 83 other countries (including France). First assessment of their work in April 2026.

Progress despite everything

COP30 also saw the emergence of groups of countries wishing to promote green industry or even a financial mechanism to protect tropical forests. “These initiatives aim to overcome multilateralism which has difficulty moving forward through consensus,” notes Céline Kauffman, director of programs at the Institute of Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI). I see them as an opportunity to advance climate action but also as a risk: they can create fragmentation between countries.” Finally, third avenue: better articulate these annual summits with the various forums where we talk about finance, taxation, trade… Where many important decisions for the climate are at stake…

“In Belém, we have entered a new type of COP,” estimates Sébastien Treyer, general director of Iddri. Until last year, the COPs were used to negotiate the rules for implementing the Paris agreement. Now that this is over, they have a role in setting the music and orchestrating what is happening throughout the economy and society. The results are more difficult to assess. » A new navigation route for the Paris agreement. Next stop: Antalya (Türkiye) in November 2026, for COP31.

* United Nations Environment Program.