towards a transatlantic rupture?

How far away the time for sumptuous family meals between European and American allies seems. Today, divorce threatens, under the successive blows of Donald Trump, and the European Union (EU) still hesitates to bang its fist on the table in the face of an American president out of control.

When Donald Trump called for Greenland, under Danish sovereignty, during the forum in Davos (Switzerland) on January 21, he made himself clear: “You can say yes, and we will be grateful to you, or say no, and we will remember it. » The icy tone left its mark.

If Donald Trump then seemed to calm down by welcoming the conclusion of an agreement with NATO, confidence remains shaken. Especially since this allergic to international institutions has also decided to shape diplomatic relations in his own way. His plan to launch a peace council, a competitor to the UN, worries Brussels, while Russia is preparing to become a permanent member in exchange for a billion-dollar entry ticket.

Reduce interdependence

In this upside down world, Europe must assert its authority. While the American president threatened to increase customs duties against states that refuse his directives, Emmanuel Macron called for “the activation of the anti-coercion instrument” of the EU, nicknamed the “economic bazooka”, ranging from taxes on products to the ban on access to the European market for certain companies.

“The European calculation is to dissuade Donald Trump through the big American bosses,” observes Jean-Dominique Giuliani, president of the Robert-Schuman Foundation. In Davos, I remembered the reaction of the greatest financier on the planet, the American Larry Fink, who complimented Emmanuel Macron for his wisdom…” A strategy that can be adopted by a qualified majority vote in the Council of the EU. Did this threat bear fruit? Perhaps, because Trump ultimately gave up applying his customs duties.

The severing of the economic link would be a hard blow on both sides, since transatlantic trade represents 30% of world trade. Europe, in particular, needs American gas and liquefied oil, and is no match for the tech giants. But there are alternatives. The Old Continent, for example, has its own payment system and GPS.

Militarily, Washington is no longer a reliable ally. Especially since the American government has announced that it will reduce its presence in certain NATO structures. “This is an opportunity to Europeanize the alliance,” underlines Sven Biscop, director of the Royal Egmont Institute in Belgium.

The escalation is such that unprecedented questions emerge: will the European armies one day face the American army? What if Donald Trump decided to seize French Polynesia for its strategic position against China? “Inconceivable,” says Sven Biscop. Europeans will never shoot Americans. We will not start a fratricidal war. » Is this so certain on the American side?