Why did the PS not wish to bring down the Bayrou government

It was not won, but they did it. The vast majority of socialist deputies have not voted the motions of censorship brought by rebellious France, yet their allies within the new Popular Front. A decision that resonates like good news in the ears of the government. The activation of 49.3 by François Bayrou Monday, February 3 could sound the end of his adventure in Matignon. It was enough that the Socialist Party and the National Rally vote two days later, against the Disapvant of the Prime Minister to fall with his teams.

None of the two ultimately played censorship, unlike the rebellious, the communists and the environmentalists. The National Assembly finally endowed France with a budget for the year 2025, which it had failed to do in December in the time of Michel Barnier. At the time, the PS had participated in this political earthquake with its left allies. How to explain such a change in such a short time?

“Victories” to brandish

This unexpected result is the fruit of the discussions carried out in January between the PS and the government. Socialist headliners considered having succeeded in pushing a number of their demands. “We got a lot,” said MP Philippe Brun after these negotiations. There were some that were already planned, others that we obtained during the discussions. »»

Among these “victories” obtained, the socialists highlight the maintenance of state medical aid, the restoration of 4,000 teaching positions or an amendment with the Green Fund with 300 million euros more.

“These negotiations are a way of distinguishing themselves,” analyzes Pierre-Nicolas Baudot, doctor of political science and specialist in the Socialist Party. “The PS wants to appear as a responsible left and capable of governing, not like that of chaos. It is a way of distinguishing itself from rebellious France by proving in passing not to be subservient to them. “Jurisprudence” Michel Barnier had nevertheless proven last December that wages were not always enough: the concessions made by the former Prime Minister at the National Rally had not prevented his censorship by the flame party. Bayrou can blow. Here he is spared, at least immediately.

And now ?

The Socialist Party rushes on a thin crest line. Even if he participated in saving the head of the government, the PS assures that he did not put himself behind the government. As if it were a question of proving, his deputies announced their will to resort to article 49.2. A measure brandished to sanction the words of the Prime Minister who, on the LCI antenna, had mentioned at the end of January a “feeling of submersion” migratory in France. This procedure also makes it possible to drop the government, if a majority is put behind it. “It is a way of recalling that the socialists are in opposition and, that in general, their agenda is not linked to that of other parties whatever it is,” says Pierre-Nicolas Baudot.

The Bayrou government is therefore not yet fully taken from a business. The political future of the Socialist Party within the New Popular Front is just as vague. Jean-Luc Mélenchon considers that the left movement has lost one of its components. “There will never be any alliance between the PS and LFI,” said socialist deputy Jérôme Guedj on his account X this Wednesday, February 5. The conflict is now more open than ever within the left. But a few months from the next Congress of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure knows that he probably reassured his troops. The tone rose between the first secretary of the PS and part of the members, who believed that he was compromising by allying with Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Will these wages be enough to allow him to keep himself at the head of the “old house”?