Lebanon on the brink of a new civil war

He had raised a faint hope. But the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, sponsored by the Trump administration, but conditioned on the cessation of Hezbollah attacks against the Jewish state, could only fail. The Land of the Cedars is caught in the grip of a life-and-death struggle between Israel, which wants to secure its regional domination, and Iran, which encourages the war waged against it by the Shiite militia, a true state within a state in Lebanon.

This “message country”, as Pope John Paul II called it in reference to its beautiful diversity, does it not risk sliding slowly towards a new civil war, such is the weariness? The IDF and Hezbollah have continued to violate the 2024 ceasefire. The Israeli army has advanced ever further, razing the villages from which many Christians have fled, bombing Tyre, Nabatiyé and as far as Beirut. Benyamin Netanyahu wants to eradicate the “Party of God”, even if it means causing thousands of innocent victims (like with Hamas in Gaza). The Shiite militia is ready to fight to the last man and the last missile, supported by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

Iran halts offensive against Hezbollah the condition of a comprehensive peace agreement with the United States. “We have no choice but to sign an agreement with Israel to recover all of our territory. And no other choice than to neutralize Hezbollah to recover all of our sovereignty,” bitterly noted the influential Lebanese daily The Orient-The day.

After the civil war, from 1975 to 1990, and the hard decades that followed, an honest president, the Maronite Joseph Aoun, finally enjoyed broad support. In 2024, he concluded a first ceasefire with Israel with the promise of integrating Hezbollah militiamen into the army. Mission impossible. More than one Lebanese, particularly in the Christian camp, wants to put an end to the armed group. It was partly similar reasons – the hostility of Palestinian refugee activists – that led to this fratricidal war. France, Lebanon’s historic supporter, must help Joseph Aoun.