why the rest of Europe is for

Alone against everyone. The free trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Uruguay, Paraguay), finalized in 2019, should be concluded by the end of the year. Good news for the majority of European states, except for France. The country is unanimously against, from right to left, from farmers to President Macron. But France cannot obstruct the text, unless it brings together three other states with which it will represent 35% of the European population, which is not won.

The agreement would open a market of 270 million consumers to European companies, whose products are currently heavily taxed upon entering the South American free trade zone. Mercosur countries would buy cars, medicines, chemicals or machine tools. A major argument for the 27, first and foremost for Germany. It faces competition from Chinese factories and has endured a recession for two years. She hopes to revive her industry thanks to the opportunities offered by the treaty. The many countries that depend on its industrial dynamism are aligning with its positions. “When a car is produced in Germany, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Austria, Slovakia or Romania are involved in its production chain,” explains Marie Krpata, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations specializing in ‘Europe.

The growing middle class of South American consumers is coveted. Spain – culturally close to the Spanish-speaking American countries – plans to sell its wine, olive oil and cold meats there. Portugal, too, is influenced by its cultural proximity to Brazil. The Netherlands could sell its production of flowers and cheese. But the opening to these new markets worries certain sectors. In France, Europe’s leading agricultural country, breeders fear being suffocated by the arrival of South American beef and poultry, subject to fewer standards. In other countries, if farmers also express their apprehensions, states defend the agreement because their industries come to the fore.

South America could, moreover, provide strategic minerals and rare earths, necessary for the energy and digital transition. Today they are often imported from China. “Germany is trying to learn the lessons of its dependence on Russian gas, which trapped it when the war in Ukraine broke out,” says Marie Krpata. Europe, caught between the Chinese and American powers, is trying to find new partners. “Other draft trade agreements have been developed, with Indonesia, India or Canada. But they too are not moving forward,” recalls the researcher.

Despite the general movement in favor of Mercosur, France still hopes to make allies. She looks towards Poland, which has expressed reservations several times, and whose agriculture is weakened by the entry of Ukrainian products. Italy and the Netherlands are also hesitant. But France remains isolated in its frontal opposition, and the anger of its farmers does not weaken.