Le Pen: “Her conviction could slow her down in the second round”

A week after the conviction on appeal of Marine Le Pen for embezzlement of public funds in the affair of European parliamentary assistants, are we already measuring a possible impact on her electorate?

At this stage, there is no indication of a major upheaval. Opinion surveys show that the first instance judgment had practically no impact either on his image or on voting intentions in his favor. This can be explained by several factors. First of all, he is an established political figure, well known to the general public. Then, she is a deeply divisive figure: one part of the French is firmly hostile to her, while another resolutely supports her.

What explains this resistance?

Among his supporters, many consider the political class to be largely dishonest. What is interesting is that, for many of its voters, the RN does not completely escape this perception. But, once they believe that the entire political class is “crooked”, probity no longer becomes a determining criterion for their vote. Their main concerns remain purchasing power, insecurity and immigration.

Can this conviction, on the other hand, have an impact on undecided voters in the perspective of a second round?

This is the central question. The issue is less whether Marine Le Pen will lose loyal voters than whether this affair can slow down her ability to broaden her electoral base.

The highlighting of Jordan Bardella in recent months could constitute an asset in this strategy. From now on, everyone finds a role: Jordan Bardella can embody a potential Prime Minister, while Marine Le Pen resumes her status as a natural candidate.

On the other hand, there is an effect of surprise whose consequences it is still impossible to measure.

That’s to say ?

For several weeks, some voters had become accustomed to the idea that Jordan Bardella would be the RN candidate. He also appeared slightly better placed in certain surveys of voting intentions. He had managed to seduce part of the traditional right by highlighting his rapprochement with the bosses. It remains to be seen how the return of Marine Le Pen will be perceived by this more liberal electorate.

Much has been said about a dividing line in the RN, between a more liberal wing and a more populist line. Is there an implicit risk of competition?

I don’t believe it. In the history of the presidential election, the parties have always been crossed by currents, even contradictions. The campaign dynamics should impose one to the detriment of the other. No doubt, to win a second round, Marine Le Pen will seek to send more signals to the current most favorable to businesses and the market economy, especially if she were to face Jean-Luc Mélenchon, in a duel which could be very close.

Does the return of Marine Le Pen definitively close the Bardella hypothesis?

We must not forget that Jordan Bardella, who is 30 years old, aroused among many frontist voters a fear of seeing him collapse during the campaign. Marine Le Pen is experienced, accustomed to the harshness of the presidential fight. But it will also be confronted with its own limits, particularly in its management between the two rounds. She will have to succeed in her third televised debate, which will reassure, or not, about her ability to lead.

Since the RN entered the second round of the presidential election, the nature of this election has profoundly changed. The question is no longer just to choose between two political projects, but to know whether the French want to put an RN leader at the head of state.

Could the decision of the sentencing judge have an impact on the campaign?

On public opinion, I don’t believe so. It could even strengthen part of Marine Le Pen’s electorate, by feeding the idea that justice interferes in the political debate.

On the other hand, on the course of the campaign, the consequences could be very concrete. If the sentencing judge imposes time constraints on him, such as the obligation to appear at certain times at a police station, this could complicate the organization of his campaign, in particular the holding of meetings in the evening.

France has never experienced such a situation. It would be a completely unprecedented presidential campaign.