A revenger with full powers?
Jackpot for Donald Trump. Electoral elections, popular vote, Senate and House of Representatives, he won – almost – all the issues in the American election. With 51% of the vote, we have to go back to 2004 and the re-election of George W. Bush to find another Republican having won the popular vote in addition to that of the Electoral Elections. A victory at the polls which will give the oldest President in the history of American democracy (78 years old), total legitimacy, from January 20, 2025, the date he takes office.
The Republicans have captured the absolute majority in the Senate, and the party is on track to retain the House of Representatives (this Friday evening, 211 seats against 199 for the Democrats, while the absolute majority is 218). With this Congress won over to his cause, the billionaire should have a free hand to advance his bills, because the Democratic opposition will be in the minority in terms of number of votes. “It’s a certainty, Donald Trump is much more powerful than in 2017 – where he already had a majority in Congress – because he has experience in power and a greater hold on the Republican Party,” explains Wanda Mastor , constitutionalist, specialist in the United States.
Economic protectionism
The economy was the main theme of the Trumpist campaign. However, although very efficient as it stands, Donald Trump wants to continue his deregulation. Among the bills that could easily be implemented when he takes power: a reduction in corporate tax from 35% to 20, or even 10%, the detaxation of tips, as well as large tax credits to the shale oil and gas industries to allow them to “drill like crazy”, but also the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the climate.
With regard to European or Chinese products, the consequences of a return to the protectionist policy of the 78-year-old leader are considerable. Those who want to “make America great again” are considering customs duties of 10% for all imports and up to 60% for those coming from China. “We can expect a lot of things, his room for maneuver is enormous. The only uncertainty is knowing how far he is ready to go,” assures Ludivine Gilli, specialist on the United States within the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. Only moderate Republican elected officials could slow down such reforms through alliances with their Democratic counterparts during certain votes in the Senate and the House of Representatives. Without these desertions within the Republican Party, Donald Trump will have a highway to pass his bills.
A conservative Supreme Court
Another asset up the billionaire’s sleeve: the composition of the Supreme Court, the highest judicial authority in the United States. Made up of nine judges appointed for life, it has six conservative magistrates against only three Democrats. Sitting in Washington, its mission is to decide, as a last resort, on decisions, laws or presidential decrees in order to rule on their conformity with the Constitution of the United States. All its decisions are rendered without possibility of appeal.
For example, in June 2018, during Donald Trump’s first term, its members spoke in favor of the presidential decree permanently banning the entry of American territory to nationals of five predominantly Muslim countries and Korea. from the North. For his return to the White House, the billionaire should continue to benefit from its ideological support, especially since he himself appointed three of the judges in office during his first term.
This concentration of executive, legislative and judicial powers is “extremely rare” in the history of the leading economic and military power in the world, underlines Ludivine Gilli, who draws a parallel with the presidency of Franklin Roosevelt between 1933 and 1945. “Democratic and benefiting large majorities in Congress, Franklin Roosevelt was a great reformer at the time of the New Deal and the United States’ entry into the war. However, he always had to fight against a Supreme Court. predominantly conservative.”
Strong counter-powers
More vengeful than ever after his 2020 setback against Joe Biden, the Florida magnate will be able to forcefully tackle one of his priority issues: the fight against immigration. He promises “the largest expulsion of illegal immigrants in the history of the United States” and wants to prevent federal agencies from automatically granting American citizenship to the children of illegal aliens, which would constitute a revision of the law of the soil contrary to the 14th Amendment to the American Constitution.
In the United States, in order to know if a law is unconstitutional, it must be put into practice. As a result, if this revision of land law is adopted, it can only be invalidated by a trial within the framework of a “constitutionality appeal” issued by a judge – Democratic, for example – in one of the 50 states. Therefore, as a last resort, the decision of the Supreme Court will be scrutinized and will serve as jurisprudence. “The Supreme Court is not made up of ideological puppets, it remains the guardian of institutions, law and freedoms. As conservative as it is, it remains a sentinel whose decisions can prove surprising,” tempers Wanda Mastor, professor of public law and specialist in the United States.
In the daily life of Americans, other counter-powers also exist, notably due to the federal system which gives many prerogatives to the States (renewable energies, right to abortion, bearing arms, etc.). The 23 Democratic governors of the 50 states in the country will therefore be able to oppose, at the local level, certain policies of Donald Trump. From the point of view of Congress and the Federal State, only a Democratic victory during the midterms of 2027 – these mid-term elections which punctuate American domestic politics, organized two years after the president takes office – could limit the powers granted to Donald Trump.
