Appointment of a new Prime Minister. Bernard Cazeneuve at Matignon?

What if it were him? Coming from the ranks of the left but not part of any formation of the New Popular Front, Bernard Cazeneuve is said to be on Emmanuel Macron’s short list for the post of Prime Minister. This Monday, he is invited to a one-on-one meeting with the President of the Republic, who then receives his two former counterparts, Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande. The profile of the former socialist minister is nevertheless far from uniting within his own political faction. “No socialist will agree to become the deputy of Macronie, that’s what I know,” Olivier Faure hammered home on Saturday during the PS summer universities in Blois under his direction. No matter. Bernard Cazeneuve’s entourage whispers that he could still accept the position if the opportunity presented itself.

The enmity of his former political family towards him dates back to 2022. That year, Bernard Cazeneuve decided to slam the door of the Socialist Party a few weeks before the legislative elections to oppose the agreement signed between the different left-wing movements. “He is one of those former executives who has distanced himself from this movement,” says Pierre-Nicolas Baudet, a political scientist specializing in the PS. To the point of finding himself in disagreement with the new line led by Olivier Faure. A few socialist figures like Anne Hidalgo, nevertheless gave him their support. “With him, we would have real cohabitation, and that is what is needed, unless we want to sit on the vote of the French people,” she confided to West France this weekend.

The former deputy of Manche who has become a lawyer again remains a loyal Hollandist. A minister throughout François Hollande’s term, the former socialist was even a short-lived head of government, from December 2016 to May 2017. Years during which he cultivated an image of seriousness and promoter of social democracy. This profile allows him to occupy a central place in the French political chessboard, while Emmanuel Macron is precisely looking for a figure capable of uniting an Assembly fractured into three blocs. But this rigor is criticized today in his camp. Sunday, at the microphone of RTL, Ségolène Royal thus criticized his “rigid thinking”. As a candidate for the role of Prime Minister, she recalled that Bernard Cazeneuve was in office at Place Beauvau when Rémi Fraisse, an opponent of the construction of the Sivens area who died from a grenade fired by the police ten years ago, died. Enough to provoke a certain hostility among environmentalists towards the former Minister of the Interior. La France Insoumise is even more hostile. In the eyes of the national coordinator of LFI, Manuel Bompart, guest of BFMTV This Sunday, Bernard Cazeneuve would be used by Emmanuel Macron to divide on his left.

In short, the former minister could have trouble rallying enough votes around him to pass laws in the Assembly. For its part, the right has not shown overflowing enthusiasm since Bernard Cazeneuve’s name began circulating, even if the RN assures that the latter’s nomination would not necessarily lead to a motion of censure likely to bring down the government. As for Nicolas Sarkozy, he believes that the former Prime Minister is not “in line with the center of gravity of French politics.” “The most logical solution would be to appoint a center-right person,” believes Luc Rouban, CNRS research director at the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po. “On the whole, the National Assembly leans more to the right than to the left, so I have a hard time believing in the Bernard Cazeneuve hypothesis.”

If it were nevertheless confirmed, it would appear as a victory for social democracy even though La France Insoumise is trying to lead the left towards more radicalism. “That said, social democracy is a political label with vague content, believes Pierre-Nicolas Baudet. It is a bit difficult to know what Bernard Cazeneuve wants politically, beyond embodying a left capable of managing the country’s affairs.”