Faced with the taxes of Donald Trump, the European Union suspends its response and focuses on dialogue

Block. This is the challenge that the European Union (EU) will have to take up during the “break on break” of American customs duties, initially planned at least 20 % on all European products.

“Donald Trump reasons in terms of transactions, what he seeks to obtain are profitable agreements for his country and, in the case of the EU, he wishes to rebalance the deficit of his trade balance,” analyzes Samy Chaar, chief economist for the Lombard Odier bank. Liquefied natural gas, soy, weapons: these are the products that the billionaire would like to see Europeans buy in larger quantities.

If the exchanges between the United States and the EU are favorable to the latter (48 billion euros in surplus, according to the European Commission), the imbalance is far from obvious as Donald Trump says. Uncle Sam floods the European continent from its digital services: software, social networks, banking systems.

Although the time is for negotiations, “we must not be fooled, the US trade war is already launched with customs duties which have gone from 2.8 % on average, to at least 10 %”, notes Charlotte Emlinger, economist for the Center for Prospective Studies and International Information.

Unevenly exposed

Faced with these taxes, not all European countries are on an equal footing. France, for example, is not the most exposed country. Its exports to the United States represent 1.5 % of its gross domestic product (GDP), against 3 % for Italy -the boot exporting many machine tools -, 4 % for Germany -carried by its automotive industry -, and even 10 % for Ireland, which hosts the seats of American giants like Google or Apple.

There is no doubt that the White House will want to exploit these disparities, while the EU announced “give negotiations a chance” and suspend its customs response of 25 % against motorcycles, soybeans or American poultry. These measures were voted by twenty-six member states; Only Hungary, Trumpist Trojan horse in Europe, has opposed it. A positive signal, since the 449 million EU consumers make it the largest unified market in the world. An argument of weight to defend himself in the merciless fight that Donald Trump triggered.