future Prime Minister, political chaos, financial risk… should we be worried?

Does the fall of the Barnier government risk sending “France into the wall”? In any case, this is what its spokesperson, Maud Bregeon, feared, a few days before the vote on the two motions of censure tabled by La France insoumise and the National Rally. As we close, a new phase seems set to open, which brings more questions than answers. The composition of the National Assembly in three hitherto irreconcilable blocs remains unchanged. No new legislative election to renew Parliament can, in fact, take place before next July. Until then, what to expect?

1. Which future Prime Minister?

Once the censure is voted by the National Assembly, the government has only one option: to submit its resignation. However Michel Barnier would not necessarily have to leave Matignon because, even if it seems surprising, nothing prevents the President from appointing him again. Emmanuel Macron also has the possibility of letting the resigning government manage current affairs for an indefinite period, like this summer. The powers of ministers would then be restricted to appointment decrees, orders, urgent financial measures and the proclamation or extension of the state of emergency in the event of a crisis. “We don’t know exactly where the notion of business as usual ends. The Constitution does not define it precisely,” adds Véronique Champeil-Desplats, professor of public law at Paris-Nanterre University. However, a mechanism allows a decision to be made in the event of a dispute: the Council of State can be contacted to verify that the government does not exceed its prerogatives. The head of state could not reappoint Michel Barnier and restart a cycle of consultations with a view to appointing a new Prime Minister. Last hypothesis: a technical government composed of personalities without partisan label, but recognized for their skills.

2. Towards political chaos?

If we see the glass half empty, the resigning government would surely not be able to table bills, or new 49.3, since it is unlikely that this would be considered as part of current affairs. If we see the glass half full, this is a golden opportunity for Parliament to get back to the heart of decisions. “A resigning government has few powers,” explains jurist Véronique Champeil-Desplats. In this situation, MPs are forced to agree to move forward. Political chaos is therefore not certain. » And France experienced this configuration this summer, without suffering from it, as evidenced by the success of the Paris 2024 Olympics. The fact remains that elected officials have not shown a great desire to agree on anything .

3. A financial risk?

The threat of a political blockage seems less great than that of a budgetary disorder. Because to ensure the continuity of the State, France must adopt a financing law by the end of the year. Good news, if the government falls, the current draft 2025 budget could continue its examination. The Constitution also indicates that the provisions of the finance bill are even likely to be “brought into force by ordinance” if the debates continue beyond seventy days, i.e. after December 21 at midnight. The government, whether resigned or newly appointed, can also adopt a special law authorizing the levy of tax until the finance law is passed. “The last resort remains article 16 of the Constitution, which allows the President to obtain exceptional powers,” explains Guillaume Tusseau, professor of public law at Sciences Po. In this case, Emmanuel Macron would become, for a time, a legislator and get a budget adopted.

Despite these constitutional wild cards, the fall of the government and an uncertain budget could have other consequences. Michel Barnier warned of “serious turbulence on the financial markets”. In recent days, France’s debt borrowing rate has jumped. François Villeroy de Galhau, the governor of the Banque de France, has already warned that “investors who lend to France are waiting for clarity on how we are going to control our debt and our deficits”. On November 29, the financial rating agency Standard & Poor’s finally renewed France’s AA- rating, deeming its outlook stable. “France remains a balanced, open, rich and diversified economy, with a large pool of private savings,” she declared. But France remains watched like milk on fire.