His attacks on judges could rub shoulders with the right -wing electorate

Judges against public opinion. This is the strategy chosen by Marine Le Pen as soon as she was announced on March 31. Available guilty of embezzlement of public funds-estimated at 4.1 million euros-in the case of European parliamentary assistants, the leader of the National Rally (RN) was sentenced to four years’ imprisonment, including two years firmly convertible with an electronic bracelet, a fine and five years of ineligibility with provisional execution, that is to say immediate application.

Believing that the rule of law had been “completely violated” by this decision, Marine Le Pen accused the judges of having knowingly prevented him from being a candidate for the presidential election of 2027. Very quickly after the judgment, the magistrate who presided over the hearing, Bénédicte de Perthuis, had to be placed under legal protection: she had received threats against her and her family.

Mobilizations and towing operations

First stunned, Marine Le Pen, who has herself denounced the supposed laxity of justice, arose as a victim of a “political” decision presenting his conviction as an insult made to the 13 million voters who voted RN in 2022. This maximum pressure and victimization strategy against the “system” recalls the main hours of the National Front.

The party had chosen the same response in 1998, when Jean-Marie Le Pen had been declared ineligible for having attacked an elected official in Mantes-la-Jolie (Yvelines), and in 2004, when he could not appear in the regional elections in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, for lack of tax attachment in the region. The fight is played out today on the ground with mobilizations – including the event of April 6 – and towing operations.

“While we want to kiss Marine, we had no other option than to appeal to opinion, so as not to bring out indignation,” says one of his relatives, himself amazed by judgment. Curiously, the RN had not prepared for such an outcome.

A few days earlier, in a small committee, Marine Le Pen admitted to “beware” of the judge, but was still thinking of prolonging the case by exhausting all the remedies. She claimed-and obtained-an acceleration of the judicial calendar to be reached on appeal: a new trial should take place before mid-2026. A first victory, according to his relatives.

A “illiberal” position

The fact remains that hammering the theme of “democracy” against the “tyranny of judges”, Marine Le Pen takes a risk: to rob the magistrates, while she awaits the leniency of the court of appeal, is perhaps not the best option. In addition, her reaction undermines the strategy of notability and credibility that she had successfully applied in recent years. “Montesquieu must turn around in his grave,” emphasizes the philosopher Myriam Revault by Allonnes. The rule of law is the basis of democracy; It is not reduced to the voting of voters alone. This vision is that of the regimes called “illiberal”, on the model of Hungary of Viktor Orban, analyzes this professor emeritus at the Practical School of High Studies.

Popular sovereignty does not mean that elected officials, because they have obtained the votes of voters, can do what they want. Democracy is based on the elections, but also on the possibility of counterpowers, and the judicial authority is one. For former socialist minister Michel Sapin, whose laws have moralized political life, judgment is part of a continuous movement of intolerance of society vis-à-vis attacks on probity. “We obviously have the right to criticize a court decision,” he said, “but all these comments would mean what?” Whether you apply the law differently depending on whether you are elected or not? »»

French polarized

Furthermore, if the supporters of the RN are blocking around Marine Le Pen, this is not necessarily the case for all the electors. A majority of the population considers that its conviction is justified (61 %, according to a cluster17 survey, and 57 % according to the Elabe Institute).

“The French are polarized between those who approve of the reaction of the RN and those who oppose it,” says Jean-Daniel Lévy, Deputy Director of Harris Interactive. This is thus the case notably for relatives of the Republicans, who are divided into two camps (1). However, it is in this rather legitimist electorate, that the RN has progressed the most lately. »»

Some could be changed. For the time being, the “presidentiality” of Marine Le Pen, like that of Jordan Bardella, has not dropped: more than 40 % of French people believe that one or the other would make a good head of state (2).

(1) and (2) 43 % of the Republicans support the position of the RN, 49 % oppose it. Harris Interactive for LCI, April 3.