Is a compromise possible in the National Assembly?
Divided into three blocs, Parliament presents a balance of power that is unprecedented under the Fifth Republic. To govern, our political forces must initiate compromise with their adversaries.
Since the evening of July 7, the French have been able to try a new political game on the Internet: create their majority in the National Assembly via a coalition simulator. A spoonful of centrists, a pinch of Republicans, a few seeds of socialists and there you have it, the absolute majority; a piece of New Popular Front (NFP), a hint of elected officials from the Miscellaneous Left, plus a few slices of Renaissance and the fateful bar of 289 deputies is getting closer. All combinations seem imaginable in this tripartite hemicycle dominated by the 182 seats of the NFP, the 168 deputies of Ensemble and the 143 elected officials of the National Rally and its allies.
But for the time being, the different camps are reluctant to reach out to their opponents. “Some deputies seem to forget that they were elected thanks to the Republican barrier and therefore to the votes of voters who do not share their ideas,” underlines Gilles Finchelstein, secretary general of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. Like many observers, the political scientist believes that compromises are “necessary in this Assembly where no clear majority is emerging.”
Faced with the risk of an ungovernable France and a minority government more than ever at the mercy of a motion of censure from the rest of the deputies, “the invention of a new French political culture 1” is essential, according to Emmanuel Macron. In each case, in fact, the presidential camp – although fragmented by the dissolution and its electoral defeat – constitutes the pivot of any alliance in the hemicycle. On this point, at least, the President of the Republic may have won his bet: “The golden rule of any grand coalition is the principle of flight to the center,” explains Sabino Cassese, former judge of the Constitutional Court in Italy, a parliamentary regime where the culture of compromise is inherent to political life 2.
Bipolarity under attack
In France, the Fifth Republic was built around the presidential election and historically converges towards a right-left confrontation in the second round. This is not the case in other European states, which are more predisposed, in this respect, to coalitions. To ensure stable governance in our country, alliances have been forged over the course of recent history between parties of the same political persuasion, such as the Union of the Left behind François Mitterrand in 1981 or the rapprochement between Jacques Chirac’s RPR and Valéry Giscard d’Estaing’s UDF in 1986. “In the current situation, on the other hand, it is necessary to go beyond the right-left bipolarity to form a government coalition,” notes Jean Garrigues, president of the Committee for Parliamentary and Political History. This happened under the Third and Fourth Republics in which the president was elected by Parliament, but would be unprecedented under the Fifth Republic.
So who would be willing to cross the Rubicon to negotiate? It is difficult to imagine Gabriel Attal governing alongside Clémence Guetté (LFI), when the former insists that no increase in taxation is possible and the latter promises a revolution in this area and the reestablishment of the wealth tax. Similarly, how can we reconcile the founding anti-nuclear positions of the Ecologists with the unwavering support of the right for the revival of nuclear power in France? Or the budgetary rigour of a Laurent Wauquiez (LR) with the public spending policy supported by Olivier Faure in the New Popular Front programme?
A difficult balance to find
But it’s not just the leaders, there are also the voters. The line between compromise and compromise is thin for the latter. “An agreement on a minimum program between opposing parties during the campaign would appear as a betrayal in the eyes of some,” observes Jean Garrigues. Which would then translate their discontent into the ballot boxes during the next presidential election, in 2027. A nightmare for the parties concerned faced with a National Rally that came first in terms of votes on July 7.
Yet, and this is the paradox, in 2023, 59% of French people supported cross-party agreement and were happy with a relative majority in the Assembly, according to a study by the Jean-Jaurès Foundation 3. “Voters make compromises every time they go to the polling booth, particularly to block the far right,” notes Gilles Finchelstein. “A majority of them expect the same from their elected representatives.”
1) Letter from Emmanuel Macron to the French published in the regional daily press on July 10.
2) In an interview on “The Italian Art of Compromise”, for The Great ContinentJuly 8.
3) “French Fractures 2023”, study carried out by the Jean-Jaurès Foundation.