the jihadist vise tightens around Bamako

Four years after falling under the rule of a military junta allied with Russia, Mali is seeing its horizon darken. Is the country, already weakened by coups and diplomatic isolation, at risk of becoming an African Afghanistan? For two months, jihadist groups have imposed an oil blockade which is suffocating cities and paralyzing the economy.

In a northern city, a young, very popular tiktoker, Mariam Cissé, was executed by these jihadists, causing great emotion even in Bamako. France, the United States and Germany have advised their nationals to leave this Sahelian country, while the capital remains, for the moment, still calm.

An excessive panic reaction, many Malians judge: the main jihadist movement, the Gsim (Support Group for Islam and Muslims), linked to Al-Qaeda, although it controls part of the country, does not have the means or the personnel to take Bamako and govern. However, it risks, in the long term, imposing its sharia law indirectly by weighing on economic and social life.

Gsim’s strategy is to stifle the economy of a landlocked country that is among the poorest in the world. By intercepting trucks coming from West African ports which supplied energy to the main cities, they weakened a junta incapable not only of defeating them but also of curbing inflation, power cuts and the chain closure of schools. The situation in Bamako is critical, with a multitude of groups and parties. What could happen – and is perhaps already happening – is that jihadist leaders, with a more conciliatory profile, enter into secret agreements with political or military leaders to obtain power under their control.

For France, which deployed Operations Serval and Barkhane from 2013 to 2022 to stem the Islamist threat, this is a bitter pill. The Alliance of Sahel States, bringing together the juntas of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, seems very weak in the face of the Islamist hydra. It is also the whole of coastal Africa which must manage the exodus of thousands of refugees from these countries and is experiencing growing tensions and destabilization.