the new lease of life that Europe needs?

Germany is entering a zone of turbulence, and that may be a blessing in disguise. Undermined by dissension, the coalition in power in Berlin since 2021 (social democrats, greens and liberals) was shattered on November 6. Pressed from all sides, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that early legislative elections would be held on February 23. Certainly, this is an eternity for the European locomotive which will operate without a real government until then. And a bad blow for the continent, while the election of Donald Trump in the United States is reshuffling the world maps and requiring important decisions to be made. But in this dark picture there is perhaps a bright spot: for three years, the baroque coalition in power in Germany has not made any progress on fundamental issues. These elections would provide a clear direction for Berlin.

“They did the job on some current affairs, but it was an unnatural coalition. As if, in France, the ecologist Sandrine Rousseau and the liberal Alain Madelin found themselves in the same government,” admits Stefan Seidendorf, political scientist, deputy director of the Franco-German Institute of Ludwigsburg (Baden-Württemberg). This marriage of carp and rabbit was sore in Brussels where the coalition’s procrastination unsettled its European partners. In April 2023, the discord reached its peak: the liberals tried to sabotage the European directive providing for banning, from 2035, the registration of vehicles equipped with a thermal engine. A project supported by the Greens, revolted by the maneuver of their coalition colleagues. And a Germany which, in the process, is losing reliability. “There have been other hiccups like this, obviously that undermines credibility,” squeaks Stefan Seidendorf.

Need for a strong voice

In reality, the coalition was stillborn. Formed shortly after the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine hit it hard. She has never been able to adapt the country’s economic model, dependent on Russian gas. “It’s structural for us. This type of coalition works if the horizon is clear. In addition, Scholz takes up Angela Merkel’s motto: “We take care of the short and medium term, and the rest we leave to history,” recalls the political scientist.

Except that history is catching up with us, and the continent needs a strong voice more than ever. “This is a decisive moment for us, Europeans,” insisted Emmanuel Macron, in Budapest (Hungary), the day after Donald Trump’s victory. Wishful thinking, because for the moment, in Berlin and until February 23, paralysis reigns. Will the elections unblock things? Recent polls suggest a possible coalition between the right of Friedrich Merz (CDU-CSU), who should become chancellor, and the center left of Olaf Scholz (SPD). “They will be able to get along,” reassures Stefan Seidendorf. Essential. “The strategic awakening” desired by Emmanuel Macron in Budapest can only be achieved with an open-eyed Germany.