“The specter of an epidemic is receding”

Does the fear of a new pandemic now seem to be over? ?

If we can understand the fears rekindled by the emergence of this virus on the international scene, these recent days clearly show us that we are in a completely different situation from that of Covid-19. The main mode of transmission of this hantavirus is the inhalation of dust contaminated by saliva, urine or feces of infected rodents. It is not well adapted to human beings: it can only be given from man to man in these exceptional circumstances. Prolonged and close contact is required, with very close proximity. On the Hondius cruise ship – an already confined environment – ​​the cold outside pushed people to stay indoors, which could encourage contamination during meals and activities. However, of the 150 passengers, most are not affected.

Why can’t the hantavirus cause a spread comparable to Covid-19?

Its mode of transmission has nothing to do with the strong epidemic potential of viruses such as influenza or Covid-19. These are respiratory viruses, easily disseminated by this route. Hantavirus is not a respiratory virus and its reservoir is rodents, not humans. It is not spread by simple contact.

So you are optimistic about the outcome of this crisis?

Yes, I don’t have any particular concerns. We cannot speak of a pandemic, because it is not spreading at high speed over different territories, and, if there was indeed an epidemic on the boat, there is none in France. No transmission between humans has taken place on French soil.

How well do we know about hantavirus?

It is a virus that has been known for around fifty years. In Europe – there are a few cases every year, France included, but which are not transmissible from man to man, unlike the Andean hantavirus, which we are talking about at the moment. The latter causes a few cases every year in Argentina, without causing real epidemics. Another reason for optimism, its characteristics do not seem to have evolved. There is no sign that it has mutated to adapt perfectly to humans. If this were the case, with a mortality rate of 30%, it would legitimately cause concern. But we’re not there at all.

Do you understand the fears it arouses despite everything?

What is scary is its high mortality rate: that of Covid-19 was 1%, here we are at 30%. Which is still considerable since one in three patients dies. But we must consider another data to judge whether a virus has a strong epidemic potential: its contamination rate and, I repeat, human transmission requires very precise circumstances.

Do the quarantines put in place seem relevant to you?

The decision to confine contact cases to the hospital and not at home seems wise to me. Likewise, requiring 42 days of isolation makes sense because this corresponds to the maximum incubation period of the virus, even though we know that the majority of cases occur in the first weeks – the median is 15-18 days after contamination. For those in quarantine, this can seem severe and humanly difficult to live with.

Is this a lesson from the Covid-19 pandemic?

Since the contaminated blood affair in the 1980s and 1990s, the precautionary principle has taken precedence in matters of public health, particularly in France. During Covid-19, state services confined the first patients, but quickly, due to the rapid mode of contamination, the epidemic spread throughout the population. We are not in the same situation, and quarantine is very relevant here. This episode reminds us of the need to harmonize care at the global level.

When will the danger be ruled out in Europe?

The first cases date from the beginning of April. We’re starting to get a little perspective. We have passed two weeks since the last case was reported on the boat, so the possibility of being contaminated is considerably remote. It’s very reassuring. That’s it for hantavirus today. But Covid-19 has made the general public aware that the prospect of a pandemic by a lethal and potentially virulent virus will arrive one day or another in the history of humanity. Let us be attentive to the Ebola virus which is emerging again in Africa. But for the hantavirus, this danger does not seem current to me.