time for parliamentary agreement?
This time, we will have to get along for good. While the Barnier government did not survive its first vote of confidence, François Bayrou hopes to be able to register his for a longer period of time. The equation, still as complex, could contain one less unknown. Certainly, the National Assembly remains divided into three blocs. But it is no longer impossible for the Socialist Party, the ecologists and the Communist Party to accept a so-called “non-censorship” pact. The counterpart? A promise from the executive not to resort to the famous article 49 paragraph 3 of our Constitution, interpreted as a forceful passage by the government on the most important laws. If this agreement is confirmed, it would reassure the Bayrou government. Because if La France insoumise has already announced that it would table a motion of censure, its votes and those of the National Rally are not enough to bring down the executive.
François Bayrou has the support of the 36 deputies of his centrist party, the MoDem, associated with his allies in the presidential majority: Renaissance (93) and Horizons (34), or 163 deputies. To pass texts, he will therefore have to count, like his fleeting predecessor, on the goodwill of opposition parliamentarians. This situation, which is disconcerting in France, is not abnormal in the Netherlands or Sweden, where the government must regularly gather a majority, text by text. “France has not yet got used to this new configuration, but it will have to do so for the country to move forward,” estimates Luc Rouban, research director at the CNRS and at the political research center at Sciences Po. “It’s all the more necessary as business leaders say they are very worried about this unstable situation. »
MPs under pressure
A new element has been added since the vote of censure against Michel Barnier: during the consultations held on December 10 with party leaders, Emmanuel Macron announced his desire not to dissolve the National Assembly – nothing obliges him to do so. – between now and the 2027 presidential election. Until now, all oppositions were maneuvering while waiting for probable legislative elections. “With this declaration, he puts pressure on political staff,” continues Luc Rouban. A way of telling them: “Show courage by discussing with each other and think about the interest of the country.” The deputies therefore return to the center of the game… for better and for worse. » From now on, transpartisan agreement will be all the more necessary as it becomes impossible to wait wisely for the next legislative elections in the months to come.
If goodwill is added up, France could therefore take a further step towards parliamentarism, a regime in which power is shared more equitably between ministers and parliamentarians. “Theoretically, the Constitution allows a distribution of forces in favor of our elected officials,” recalls Thomas Ehrhard, lecturer in political science at Panthéon-Assas University (Paris II). This is even the spirit of the 1958 text. » But here it is: the election of the President of the Republic by universal suffrage, in 1962, and the transition to the five-year term forty years later anchored the presidentialization of our regime. “Parliament can still have extensive powers, but it all depends on the political context,” specifies the political scientist.
Reluctant parties
On paper, the context seems rather favorable. The president, Emmanuel Macron, continues to push his vision by appointing the Prime Minister of his choice, but, lacking a majority to support him in the National Assembly, his powers are less. Still, the spirit of dialogue and negotiation must be shared within the government and the different groups in Parliament to create majorities. “Ultimately, it is much more a question of will than of the Constitution,” continues Thomas Ehrhard. Unfortunately, I don’t think the political parties are ready for this change. We see very clearly that their main leaders are not aiming for the post of Prime Minister, but for the next presidential election. » The ball is now in the court of the left – the Insoumis excepted – and the Republicans, on the right. “Not everyone will play the game,” worries Luc Rouban, “because compromises are often perceived as compromises by voters and political parties. » Knowing that an impasse would strengthen protest voices, while a majority of French people declare themselves dissatisfied* according to a recent survey.
* “ French fractures: a crisis of confidence? »Ipsos institute, December 2024.
