Trump, China, inheritance of François … Leon XIV’s diplomatic challenges

Leon XIV will he be able to fight against the “world war by songs” that his predecessor had denounced. Will he take peace initiatives, will he launch “bridges”, as he insisted in his first address to the Catholics? Will he make diplomacy a priority?

The first American pope put the accent very strongly: “Una pace Disarmata and Una Pace Disarmante”, he argued. In the notion of “disarmed peace”, there is a call for disarmament. In “disarming peace”, the idea that the will of peace can disarm the belligerents.

A prudent and multilingual pontiff: what diplomatic assets?

The new pontiff does not have a vast geopolitical experience, but he knows Latin America. His European roots-he masters Spanish, Italian and French-will they be more attentive, more benevolent than François towards old Europe in existential crisis?

On all major challenges (wars, migration, traffic, environment, cybersecurity), he will have to keep his distance from the White House, his exhortations, his pressures, his tricks, the tweets and insidious criticism. His past positions suggest that he will not be told.

If Robert Francis Prevost is in François’ line, by the method will it better? The impulsive and emotional Jorge Bergoglio was not a diplomat. Its shock formulas will sometimes have sown confusion, requiring cropping. His successor appears more prudent, more stingy with his words, meditated in advance. Interesting will also be to see the calendar of his first trips.

Heritage of François and possible continuities

Did the Soft Power Diplomatique du Holy See remained as strong under François as for example under John Paul II? His efforts have been intense, strong gestures will have marked, as in Iraq or Central African Republic.

Negotiating, avoiding civilian victims, arresting arms sales, banning nuclear weapons, condemning foreign interventions, it was François’ credo. He had disputed in his encyclical Fratelli Tutti “Just war”. François, for example, influenced Barack Obama so that he does not intervene after the Sarin gas attack in Damascus. Will the attitude of the new pope be different?

Some analysts criticize François for having sought dialogue with a putin, an Assad, an Erdogan. Will the attitude of the new pope be more suspicious and dissuasive with regard to dictators?

The Diplomatic Network of the Vatican: continuity and challenges

Will the current competent team remain in place: Secretary of State Pietro Parolin, Briton Paul Richard Gallagher, his “Minister of Foreign Affairs”? The smallest state in the world has diplomatic relations with 184 states. A network whose characteristic is to be discreet, with a unique knowledge of the field. Thirteen countries only have relations with the Holy See, including China and Saudi Arabia.

Will Leon XIV continue to rely on Sant’Egidio, a community of Catholic lay people which has an exceptional address book among rebel movements.

François will have worked on the historical rapprochement between Cuba and the United States. His team mobilized for Colombia, Venezuela, Nicaragua. In Africa, its support for democratic processes, for example in the Democratic Republic of Congo or South Sudan, is greeted.

Geopolitical crises: what positioning for Léon XIV?

But in the Middle East, did François did well to maintain a nuncio in Damascus to preserve the dialogue channels? What positioning of Leon XIV in the face of the new Syrian regime?

Since the massacre of October 7, 2023, relations with Israel have been frankly bad. François was criticized for a pro-Palestinian bias, by condemning the TSAhal operation in Gaza. The Vatican, which defends the two -state solution, is increasingly inaudible. With more fingering, will Leon XIV offer discreet good offices on the land of Christ?

On the Ukrainian file, Léon XIV is also eagerly awaited. François had taken time to designate the Russian aggressor. Words shocked when he urged Ukrainian soldiers to “hoist the white flag” or castigated “NATO barking at the gates of Russia”. It is for the sake of not sabotaging the laborious dialogue with the Russian Orthodox Church that François will have delayed cutting the bridges with Patriarch Kirill, great support from Putin.

As in the Middle East, the humanitarian action of the Holy See will have been consistent, promoting exchanges of prisoners and the return of hundreds of Ukrainian children taken to Russia.

Another serious failure is Haut-Karabagh: the Armenians were very disappointed with a very low reaction of the Holy See to the expulsion of 100,000 Christian inhabitants of this territory. Would Baku pressures and generosity cause this bitter pill? A rebalancing will be welcome.

Finally, what will the new pope do against China. “We hope that the Vatican will continue to engage in a constructive dialogue,” reacted Beijing. Nothing but agreed. An agreement dating from 2018 provides for the appointment of mutual bishops. Perhaps this file played the conclave against Cardinal Parolin who had negotiated him. Léon XIV will have to redefine dialogue with this omnipresent world power and Asia in general.