Victory for Donald Trump. Will the new president of the United States have the means to implement his program?

Overwhelming victory, limitless power? The resounding success of Donald Trump on November 5 opens up a new horizon for the oldest president in American history (78 years old on the day of his election). “America has given us a powerful and unprecedented mandate,” the Republican claimed in his speech. For once, he’s not exaggerating. Winner in the electoral college (312 votes against 226 for Kamala Harris), he also won the popular vote with more than 4 million votes in advance. “He won by rebuilding the Republican Party,” said Florida senator (and ex-rival) Marco Rubio. The champion of white America defied the odds and won indisputable legitimacy by obtaining the trust of 46% of Americans of Hispanic origin and one in five black male voters. For the Democratic Party, undermined by its divisions on the question of sex change, the legalization of drugs, border control or support for Israel, Trump’s re-election is, a contrario, an “existential disaster”, according to the word from Edward Luce, author of The retreat of Western liberalism (work not translated into French).

The 2016 election could have been an accident; that of 2024 confirms that the United States has changed permanently. Neither the court convictions, nor the dubious outbursts, nor the candidate’s obscenities and lies dissuaded voters. Brutality emancipated from any concern for morality has established itself as the new grammar of public debate. The strategy of tension, based on insults and delegitimization of his opponents and the media – “the enemy”, as he says -, orchestrated on social networks by Donald Trump during the campaign, was endorsed by the ballot boxes. Just like the radical program promised without ever being explained.

Facts after words

But will the new president be able to apply it? Mass expulsion of illegal immigrants; return to the trade war through the imposition of customs duties on foreign products, including for European allies; debureaucratization of the federal administration; tax cuts for the wealthiest taxpayers; reprisals also against his political adversaries… so many promises whose implementation will be difficult. “America first” is the slogan, but it remains to be translated into reality.

Certainly, the Republicans now hold the majority in the Senate and should retain it in the House of Representatives. The Supreme Court, with a majority on the right, appeared to sign the new president a judicial blank check by granting him, last July, impunity for his actions during his previous mandate. But, in practice, how to do it? In an economy close to full employment (unemployment rate of 4.1%), sending back 10 to 12 million illegals, many of whom are working, would immediately destabilize American businesses and farms using this workforce . Imposing tariffs would lead to “triggering an escalation of retaliation with inflationary consequences in the United States and around the world,” according to Josh Lipsky, director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. Even though it is the inflation of the Biden years which has diverted part of the working classes from the Democratic vote, as opinion polls attest. Elon Musk, the richest man in the world, the father of the Tesla electric car, reusable rockets and owner of the social network an “audit” of government effectiveness. Does he have the skills? Finally, further tax cuts would risk raising interest rates and, paradoxically, disrupting the current growth of the American economy, twice as dynamic as the French one.

Counter-powers

The election of Trump does not, moreover, abolish the classic American counter-powers. In a society where contracts and lawyers are omnipresent, courts can block political decisions. Lobbies and interest groups, very active in the corridors of power in Washington, will know how to defend their particular interests. The Central Bank, the “Fed Reserve”, will continue to decide the level of interest rates in complete independence from political power, even if candidate Trump has said he wants, once elected, to influence his choices. If the independence of central bankers were called into question, the sanctions of the markets would be immediate; billionaire Trump, whose victory was greeted by a new record on the Wall Street Stock Exchange, will not take this risk. Furthermore, the very structure of the country limits the scope of the skills of the occupant of the White House: out of 50 states, 23 have elected a Democratic governor as their head. However, from renewable energies to the right to abortion, the prerogatives of each State remain considerable.

The real uncertainty remains linked to the very personality of Donald Trump. Not interested in studying the files, with a versatile judgment (he became a fan of digital currencies and bitcoin which he was wary of…), often convinced by the last opinion expressed, the man showed himself, during of his first mandate, incapable of lastingly following a line and more sensitive to flattery than to the contradictory examination of logical arguments. The choice of the entourage will be decisive. In this regard, the prospect raised by Trump of entrusting health care to JFK’s nephew, Robert Kennedy Jr., an anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist, is worrying. The show doesn’t seem to be ending any time soon.