“We are in a diplomatic quagmire”, analysis by Didier Billion

The risks of a generalized war in the Middle East have been growing for eleven months. At the end of August, a new step was taken when Hezbollah attacked Israeli military structures. Does each escalation constitute a further step towards regional conflagration?

Without wishing to underestimate the seriousness of the situation, I do not think that we are heading towards a regional conflict. This operation was, in my opinion, a way for Hezbollah to avoid losing face after Israel’s targeted assassination of its military leader, Fouad Chokr, last July. I did not perceive a real desire to fight and cause damage. The rockets sent from Lebanon were easy to intercept and no cities were targeted. The same configuration prevailed last April, when Iran wanted to retaliate after Tel Aviv struck the Iranian consulate in Syria. The leaders of the Shiite regime had publicly announced that missiles had just left the territory, giving the Israeli authorities two hours to react before the missiles arrived in their airspace. This situation should not be analyzed only from a military point of view; there is also a political dynamic. Whether it is Israel on one side or Hezbollah and Iran on the other, each side wants to show its strength and dissuade the adversary from carrying out a large-scale offensive. We are witnessing a war of communiqués. But we must always remain vigilant, a poorly controlled skid can lead to the worst consequences.

Do you believe in the possibility of a massive attack?

Not for a second. The Iranians have suffered an obvious snub with the targeted assassinations carried out by Israel, but the American and Israeli response would be lightning fast in the event of a high-intensity offensive. In Iran, the economic and political situations are fragile.

Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of Israelis and Lebanese living near the border have been displaced and the situation in Gaza continues to worsen. How long can it last?

Until a ceasefire!

But the talks have been stalling for months…

Indeed, the many attempts have yielded no results. We are witnessing a permanent standoff, where neither side wants to bend the knee first. And this despite the efforts of Qatar, Egypt and the United States. Although US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has travelled to the region nine times since 7 October, each time he has left empty-handed, failing to put on the table elements satisfactory to the forces involved. Washington finds itself in an impossible position by claiming to be an effective mediator while fuelling the Israeli war machine with deliveries of highly sophisticated weapons and military equipment. The negotiations are a diplomatic quagmire.

Why doesn’t the US withdraw from the negotiations?

Who else could take over? France? Of course, Emmanuel Macron regularly maintains relations with the relevant political leaders. But the French voice has been completely discredited since he proposed launching an international coalition against Hamas on the model of the one formed against Daesh, which has existed for ten years. This proposal has only received one support: that of Netanyahu.

What is the state of Hamas today?

Hamas does not report the number of its military losses. It certainly appears to be very weakened, but it has not been eradicated as the Israeli government had hoped by carrying out incessant bombings in the Gaza Strip.

What’s happening in the West Bank?

It is not talked about enough, but in parallel with the bombings on Gaza, the Israeli army is launching military operations in Palestinian cities in the West Bank. I have seen images of bulldozers destroying the streets. And since the trauma of October 7, extremist Israeli settlers have been reigning terror: expulsion of Palestinian residents, burning of olive groves… There is an unleashing of violence that is taking place with complete impunity.

Long fervent supporters of the Palestinian cause, Arab countries are now keeping a low profile. What role do they play?

They are conspicuous by their deafening silence. Once again, the Arab League states are speaking out in statements but, in concrete terms, they are not taking action. If they had presented a united and more radical front, the discussions might have been more fruitful. But some of these states were in the process of normalizing with Israel before October 7, Saudi Arabia for example. Riyadh saw in this an economic and strategic interest in particular – in Israeli technological know-how. It seems obvious that these leaders will resume dialogue with the Israelis if the situation ever stabilizes. Egypt, for its part, has refused to accept Palestinian refugees in the Sinai region. On the one hand, the region is not stabilized due to the persistent presence of jihadist groups, and on the other hand, from an economic point of view, the country could not support such an influx. Moreover, history has shown that Palestinian refugees never pass through the countries that host them.

In the long term, is a two-state solution still possible?

I am bored to answer this question. If the UN still advocates this position, I am not sure it is still possible. What to do with the West Bank and East Jerusalem when 700,000 Israeli settlers have settled there: should they be expelled?

What did the international community fail to do to reach this point of no return?

The final mistake was to consider the Palestinian question settled. Political leaders around the world were convinced that the Palestinians would accept the status quo – them confined to the Gaza Strip and the settlers continuing to deploy in the West Bank. In January 2023, I was still hearing at the Foreign Ministry that it was necessary to move on to another sequence. A self-persuasion that helps explain why no one predicted the events of October 7, 2023.

What consequences will the outcome of the American election next November have on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

We already know that Donald Trump will support unconditional support for Israel. And if Kamala Harris does not want to impose sanctions on Israel, the two will not be so different in their approach to the problem. We should not wait until January and the inauguration of Joe Biden’s successor to demand a ceasefire.