What is at stake for each continent

Africa, a new goalkeeper of the doctrine

Has the time of an African pope come? Since 2005 and the death of John Paul II, the question has insisted on this continent where one in five Catholic lives. “The Church in Africa has things to say! And I believe that she says it today with great freedom, ”says Cardinal Dieudonné Nzapalalainga from Rome. At 58, the Archbishop of Bangui, in the Central African Republic, is part of this young generation of cardinals created by Pope Francis to accompany the impressive boom in Catholicism on the African continent: + 3.3 % of faithful in just one year, between 2022 and 2023. If the clergy is still a little less present than on the other continents, growth. “Africa is the future of the Church, it is obvious,” recently welcomed Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo, archbishop of Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of Congo).

And the latter no longer wants to be content to be the pool of the living forces of Catholicism: she wants to take all her part, even if he is a guardian of the faith in the face of a dechristianized Europe. The most virulent opposition to Fiducia supplicans (2023) – Vatican document opening the door to the blessing of same -sex couples – thus came from the continent. In an almost unanimous voice, the African bishops declared such a possibility as “unacceptable”. “This position, rooted in the Holy Scriptures, was taught without interruption by the universal magisterium of the Church,” they assured.

The United States wants to have a voice in the chapter

In a 40 %Protestant nation, American Catholicism, long marginalized but now well installed, was particularly jostled by Pope Francis. Its calls for migrants, its denunciation of financial globalization or its ecological commitment have not always been understood across the Atlantic. The experienced Cardinal Timothy Dolan, New York archbishop, while welcoming François’s “style”, did not hesitate to claim “more clarity in the teachings”. His successor, still hopes the cardinal, will have to know how to feed the Church without giving up the “treasures of the past”.

He thus echoes the dissatisfaction of an important Catholic community attached to the celebration of mass in the Rite Tridentine (before Vatican Council II) and particularly governed against the restrictions imposed by the Argentinian Pope. But the American ecclesial landscape is also in full recomposition, with the ever-increasing share of the faithful of Latin American origin. These now represent 40 % of Catholics in the country. Several cardinals appointed by François, including the current archbishop of Washington Robert McElroy, embrace this evolution as a challenge. The latter requests a more synodal church, “including everyone and animated by the participation of all”.

Latin America, heiress of François

First Latin American pope in history, François will have kept a particular concern for his original continent throughout his pontificate. Apart from the notable exception of his native Argentina, he will have visited the majority of the countries of the subcontinent and will have kept a particular eye on episcopal appointments. Cardinal Leonardo Steiner, Archbishop of Manaus, Brazil, underlined last December the “very deep link” which united the Latin American Church to the Ministry of Pontiff.

François will have constantly attempted to promote on a universal scale what he had bishop on a continental scale in 2007, as the main editor of the final document of the Aparecida conference (Brazil). This pastoral text already announced the main lines of its pontificate: the concern for the environment, the importance of popular devotion or the concern for migrants. “(The pope) lived what he preached all his life, and for us, it is an essential message,” said Cardinal Chileien Fernando Chomali, Archbishop of Santiago shortly after his arrival in Rome for the conclave. It will therefore now be up to the subcontinent to ensure that François’s heritage continues to guide the church.

Asia looking for a clean identity

Despite the vitality of its Catholic universities, Asia is struggling, with some exceptions, to bring out world -scale figures. It must be said that the continent hardly finds its unity, oscillating between small particular churches and dioceses of hundreds of thousands of faithful, anchored in a long tradition. And this diversity is found in the Cardinalice College: how to compare the pastoral task of Cardinal Giorgio Marengo, apostolic prefect of the 1,400 Catholics of Mongolia, and that of Cardinal Jose Advincula, at the head of the diocese of Manila (Philippines) and its 2.7 million faithful? Between the richness of Singapore and the poverty of certain Indian regions, the continent must also compose with populations with very varied social situations. And all, without forgetting the Catholics who live under the suspicious gaze of the authorities of their country, as in China or Burma. Cardinal Charles Maung Bo, Archbishop of Rangoun (Burma), says he is optimistic, “This century brings the promise of the return of Christ to Asia,” he said the day after the Pope’s death.

On the geographical level, Asia also houses the Holy Land, which has only one cardinal, the Italian Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Latin patriarch of Jerusalem with recognized moral authority. In his only press conference, he insisted on the need to defend the freedom of Christian minorities in the world. His word will be listened to, especially since the last speech of Pope Francis, for the Blessing Urbi and Orbi of Easter Sunday, will have been a new vibrant appeal for peace in the earth trained by Christ.

A Europe in crisis of faith

Long undisputed center of the Catholic faith, Europe saw its position be brutally questioned in 2013 with the arrival of the first pope coming from another continent for centuries. But the election of François confirmed a reality: Europe is no longer the place where faith is the most dynamic – in the figures in any case. Thus, if the Vatican’s official statistics ensure that the number of baptized does not decrease on the old continent, the other surveys show a brutal drop in practice. It remains to be seen whether the quivering concerning the number of catechumens is a lasting phenomenon. “Something happens in France,” said a Cardinal from Central Europe when he arrived in Rome.

Faced with this dechristianization, two tendencies assert themselves in Europe: one of rapprochement with contemporary realities, the other of reaffirmation of the great principles of faith. Designed in response to the crisis of sexual abuse, the German Synodal path embodies the first of these trends, with strong proposals – blocked by the Vatican – on an overhaul of the ordained ministries and the place of women. Conversely, others consider that dechristianization is the fruit of a Catholic voice which no longer dares to assert its fundamental principles, at the forefront of which those on the protection of life and the family. Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich, Archbishop of Luxembourg, however warns the risk of reaching the point where “religion becomes an ideology”. And if, with almost 40 % of the total of cardinals, the voice of Europe remains predominant, he believes that it may be time to have “a pope of young churches”.

Oceania, rising voice

If it is a region of the world that has benefited from the papal desire to geographically open the conclave, it is Oceania. The cardinals Mafi (Tonga) and Ribat (Papua New Guinea) are original voices, very invested in particular in the fight against global warming that affects their countries. While Oceania represents less than one percent of world Catholics, it has four votes with a conclave (almost 3 %). Moreover, in the region, Catholicism is reinforced faster than the global scale: + 1.9 % between 2022 and 2023, against + 1.1 % worldwide.

The Roman Curia, in search of appeasement

For twelve years of a pontificate, one of the first missions of which will have been to reform the Curia in order to take it in hand, the central organ of the church will have been particularly turned upside down. The collaborators of the dicasteries, who are mostly neither cardinals nor bishops, were destabilized by the hard words of the pope against the curia. Most of them, even those in agreement with the reforms, are now expecting stability and perhaps a little recognition of their service mission.

Others, such as the very classic Cardinal Gerhard Müller, bans by François, ask for a change of course. The next pope, supports the German in an interview with Times, should not “seek the applause of the secular world which sees the Church as a humanitarian organization doing social work”. No less than 31 cardinals voters are linked to the curia (between current and past leaders and apostolic nunciful), and their voice should therefore count.

Sources: Pontifical directory 2025 And Annuarium statisticum ecclesiae 2023.

What about French cardinals?

Five French cardinals will participate in the conclave: Jean-Marc Aveline, future president of the Conference of Bishops of France, Philippe Barbarin, François-Xavier Bustillo, Christophe Pierre and Dominique Mamberti.

It is to the latter that he will come back to pronounce “the Habemus Papam” when the time comes. Little known in France, Cardinal Pierre could have a particular voice in the conclave, bridgeting the Roman Curia -he came from Vatican diplomacy -, Europe and the United States, where, like Nonce, he represents the Holy See since 2016.

To these five French prelates is added Cardinal Jean-Paul Vesco, archbishop of Algiers. If he owns the two nationalities, he is counted as an Algerian cardinal by the Holy See.