American presidential election. Middle East, Ukraine, China… 6 questions about this election that could change the world

Normally, foreign policy issues weigh little on the American campaign even if, conversely, the choice of American voters has consequences from one end of the planet to the other. This time, however, the war in Ukraine, relations with the allies or the question of protecting the borders with Mexico in the south are igniting the campaign.

There are real divisions between the two candidates, the Republican Donald Trump and the Democrat Kamala Harris, even if the first remains unpredictable and the second often imprecise. They are neck and neck in the polls within the swing statesthese seven states could swing to one side or the other and make the election. Will the support for Ukraine, promised by Harris, allow him to win Pennsylvania where there are many descendants of Poles and Ukrainians? Will Trump’s strong speech on Latin American migratory pressure be enough for him to win Arizona? Response on November 5.

1. What consequences will the American election have on the French economy?

Consumers once again experiencing rising prices and families aspiring to homeownership faced with more expensive mortgages: this is the double nightmare scenario predicted by many economists in the event of the election of Donald Trump. The latter promised to impose a minimum tax of 10% on all products imported into the United States and even 60% for goods originating in China. The consequences could trigger infernal mechanics.

Initially, prices would increase in the United States. This return of inflation would lead to a further rise in interest rates which would send the dollar soaring. On the French side, imported products paid in dollars (oil, etc.) would become more expensive and this increase in costs would spread to products manufactured here. Companies would slow down their investments; the number of unemployed would start to rise again; consumption would fall. The recession caused in the United States by the shock of the program would spread to the rest of the industrial world.

We remember that in 2019, 150 categories of products suffered customs duties of 25%: Italian cheeses, Scottish whiskeys, German knives and construction equipment, British textiles and French wines, among others. Damage estimated at more than 500 million euros for French wine growers. If implemented, Donald Trump’s proposals “could lead to significant losses in growth in the euro zone,” warned Joachim Nagel, the head of the German Federal Bank.

2. What impact will the American presidential election have in the Middle East?

Never has the Middle East question been so crucial in an American presidential election. The polarization around Gaza and the resentment of the Arab-American community in Michigan against the Democratic administration following Joe Biden’s support, even critical, for Israel make the vote in this normally Democratic state uncertain. Conversely, the outcome of the election could redraw the map of the region. If it is not certain that President Harris, very cautious on the subject, would be able to be firmer towards Benjamin Netanyahu, the return of Donald Trump would encourage the hardest-liners in the Israeli cabinet. In 2019, the Trump administration recognized Israel’s annexation of the Golan and moved the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem two years earlier, thereby recognizing the Holy City as the capital of the Jewish State. “the cherished ally” in the words of the former president.

Within Netanyahu’s cabinet, the hawks dream that the United States could, this time, go so far as not to oppose the annexation of the West Bank. “With Trump in the White House, annexation becomes a more serious possibility,” notes Khaled Elgindy, researcher at the Middle East Institute. It would be the end of the dream of a Palestinian state. During the campaign, Donald Trump, who seems convinced that Iran wants to assassinate him, appeared to give the green light to an Israeli strike against Tehran’s nuclear facilities, while the Biden administration has publicly stated its opposition to such bombardment.

4. Does the fate of Ukraine depend on the American election?

The American aid sent to kyiv by the Biden-Harris administration has been massive. Not since the Marshall Plan in the immediate post-war period has a European state received so much from the United States. In total, since the Russian invasion of February 2022, Congress has released $175 billion in assistance. Of this envelope, the Ukrainian government has already received 106 billion in various aid, including 70 billion for military support (tanks, anti-aircraft defense systems, radars, ships, artillery, ammunition, missiles with a range of 322 km, etc.).

Kamala Harris stressed that she would continue this line “as long as it takes”. Donald Trump, for his part, repeated that he would “end the war in twenty-four hours”, without giving details but demonstrating constant opposition to the American support implemented. His running mate JD Vance was more explicit in evoking a demilitarization by Ukraine of Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russian forces and a permanent neutralization of the country. “A plan similar to Putin’s,” comments Angela Stent of the Brookings Institution, a research center close to the Democrats.

Although the European states have all together provided more financial aid than that of the United States, their military support remains much lower. The conclusion is clear: without American support, Ukraine could not continue to resist.

5. After the US election, will China have a free hand to swallow Taiwan?

The fate of the “other China”, the one which has embraced democracy, is one of the most important geopolitical issues of the decade. Communist China continues to tighten its pressure on Taiwan. It is obviously not by chance that, four weeks before the American election, Beijing launched, on October 14, naval aviation maneuvers around the island mobilizing an aircraft carrier, destroyers, frigates, 125 planes… Even if the communist power is “ready to work for peaceful reunification”, it will “never promise to renounce the use of force” recalled a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Defense.

Faced with this threat, Washington’s attitude will be decisive. When he was president, Donald Trump wanted to use the Taiwan question as a lever for negotiations with China (trade, North Korean nuclear power, etc.). It was a failure. Basically, he does not understand the American commitment in the Far East, in his eyes costly and unnecessary. In his book investigation Fear. Trump at the White House (Threshold), journalist Bob Woodward, who revealed the Watergate scandal half a century ago, recounts a meeting on January 19, 2018 where the President regains his businessman accents to display his instinctive skepticism in front of his security council: “What’s in it for us by maintaining a massive military presence on the Korean peninsula? And what’s in it for us to protect Taiwan? » Yet his administration has increased arms sales to the island.

The Biden presidency has, for its part, “expanded and developed” the American-Taiwanese relationship. On four occasions, the President promised to “defend” the small country. Kamala Harris knows the region she visited as vice president. She affirmed her wish that the status quo be maintained and her refusal in principle to see a border challenged by force. She also declared that she took seriously the United States’ commitment to allies in the area when her Republican opponent repeated that these same countries needed to pay more for their own defense.