enthusiasts take over after the closure of Météo-France stations

The weather report had not announced a shadow of lightning. But seeing the storms coming up from the Pyrenees and the wind from Autan (which comes from the South, Editor’s note) getting stronger, Mathieu Rivière felt the blow coming on October 25. Straight away, he announced on his Facebook page that a rain-storm system fed by the Mediterranean would set in in the region. “Some sectors will be able to wipe 50 mm in 30-40 minutes,” bluntly warns this enthusiast based in Saint-Marcel-Campes, in Tarn. “Albigeois and Carmausin seem particularly exposed. » Bingo! All evening, comments poured in. “Big storm in Cagnac-les-Mines, indeed” testifies Nancy, a resident. “It lasts more than thirty minutes at Garric. Heavy rain and a lot of rumbling,” adds Gaétan. Blessed bread for Mathieu, who, with 11,700 subscribers, has established himself as a reference in the local weather sector. At 23, the young man has neither a senior meteorological technician certificate nor a doctorate in atmospheric and climate sciences. He works as a farmer. Its strengths? Its responsiveness and freshness.

“Amateurs have a communication quality that the institution does not have,” observes Serge Zaka, agroclimatologist and vice-president of Infoclimat. Created in 2003, this association of enthusiasts promotes the exchange of data and knowledge around weather and climate. “They talk about what they observe on the ground with their guts and a very accessible vocabulary. This is what people expect today: punch, direct, action and embodiment. » A real revolution in the small world of weather, which for a long time remained the preserve of the Météo France juggernaut.

Obviously, we are not interested in the vagaries of the sky from one day to the next. For some, violent storms or heavy snow episodes have awakened their vocation. For others, like Olivier Renard, 39, it was the storm of 1999. “At the time, I was 15 years old and I tried to understand how we could find ourselves confronted with such powerful phenomena,” says this SVT teacher from Châteauroux (Indre). Advantage, it is no longer necessary to be a pro in fluid mechanics to call yourself a meteorologist. You just need to master internet tools, learn a few basic technical terms and know your region and local influences perfectly.

The ideal? Have your own weather station in your garden. Prices have become much more democratic in recent years. Allow around a hundred euros for a basic consumer model, and between 500 and 700 euros for a semi-professional version. Enough to boost sales. “Over the last five years, we have seen an increase of 5% to 15% in our annual turnover,” notes Jérôme Dréano, president of the Météo Bretagne association and director of the Météo Concept company, which is dedicated to instrumentation. , modeling, data and meteorological expertise for businesses, media and the general public. Access to information has also greatly expanded. “Today, the forecast models used by the main world meteorological institutes, freely accessible on the Internet, have increased the skills of amateurs,” analyzes Anouchka Vasak, co-head of the Climate Perception seminar at the École normale supérieure.

Weather France in decline

But if enthusiasts are so vocal on social networks, it is, above all, because of the void left by Météo France in the region. “Until 2008, we had one center per department, in which there were forecasters, climatologists and a departmental delegate,” explains François Giroux, forecaster in Lyon (Rhône) and CGT staff representative. “Following several restructurings, these centers were closed and replaced by seven interregional branches, plus a few specialized centers, in the high mountains for example. »

Result: in fifteen years, the institution went from 3,600 to 2,600 employees – essentially retirements not replaced. To compensate for this drop in staff, part of the forecasts accessible on the institution’s website have been automated. “Before, we already used data from algorithms but we had them corrected by forecasters on an interregional scale. » Their positions were eliminated in November 2023 in the name of the principle of savings. Along the way, the 2,300 volunteers who observed the weather, especially in the countryside and the mountains, and completed the network of public service agents, were also thanked.

Machine supremacy

Among them, Michel Boureille, 64, a farmer from Saint-Pal-de-Chalencon (Haute-Loire), affected by the weather virus on the benches of the agricultural high school. For nine years, he worked to scrupulously note in a notebook, every morning, “at 6 a.m. GMT, i.e. at 8 a.m. in summer and 7 a.m. in winter”, the weather of the last twenty-four hours: the temperatures , rainfall, snow depth, melted snow or ice measured via its manual station. Once a month he sent his readings by mail to the Météo France regional station in Aurillac (Cantal). Three years ago, he had to hand over an automatic station that the organization installed on his property. “These devices have the advantage of transmitting readings every six minutes, but they do not analyze all the parameters as I did, in particular thunder, hail or fog,” regrets the enthusiast. A dead loss for local climatology.

This supremacy of machines has also led to a series of well-publicized hiccups at Météo France: significant temperature differences, unannounced snow or rain, underestimated strong winds… “These errors do not exceed 20% of forecasts”, nuance Martine Tabeaud, geographer, professor emeritus at the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne. “But in a just-in-time society, it has become unbearable. For professionals whose economic activity depends a lot on the weather, such as construction craftsmen or road hauliers, but also for ordinary people who don’t want to miss their vacations because of bad weather. »

In this context, independent meteorologists increasingly appear as a complement, or even a substitute, to the public service. “After the heatwave episodes of 2019, we saw the arrival of a new audience, who, driven by a form of anxiety, were looking for explanations for these extreme phenomena,” says Sébastien Brana, IT project manager and vice-president of Info -climate. “Our role is also to do educational work and to explain what is happening in the atmosphere, why it rains so much…”

Complementarity of uses

What do professionals think? “At the very beginning, some people said to us: “But who are you?” » remembers teacher Olivier Renard, also president of the Météo Centre-Val de Loire association, founded in 2011. Since then, relations have largely calmed down. “As we remained in our corridor, Météo France understood that we did not aim to replace it. We also send them our data free of charge. »

The border between the two worlds is becoming more and more porous, with many amateurs deciding to make their passion their profession. Cyril Dupont, for example, a forty-year-old from Saint-Étienne-de-Montluc, near Nantes (Loire-Atlantique), a weather fan since the age of 6, decided to start out as a freelance meteorologist in 2007. He ended the adventure after two years. “Since the arrival of private weather channels, there has been a lot of competition. It is very difficult to impose yourself,” he regrets.

Guillaume Woznica, 34, was luckier. A simple baccalaureate graduate, he managed to distinguish himself thanks to the specialized site he created in high school. From local radio to specialized channel, he ended up landing on LCI as a weather presenter. However, he does not forget where he comes from. “As fans’ Facebook pages are very popular, they have a weight that can no longer be denied. The two communities say that it would be in their best interest to work hand in hand. Especially since the pages that have an audience today are for the most part serious, managed by enlightened amateurs. » In a society marked by distrust towards institutions, weather enthusiasts have achieved a difficult challenge: establishing themselves among both the general public and professionals.