Impasse has arisen Hope

Forces present, issues in the Church and the world, report to the previous Pope: all the parameters seem to differ between the conclave of October 1978, which had elected Karol Wojtyla on the pulpit of Saint-Pierre, and the one which opens Wednesday May 7, 2025. The first gave birth to the election of a very determined non-Italian after the ephemeral reign of John Paul Ier, overwhelming and which had only held a month.

The cardinals, distraught were looking for a candidate who was not weak and of fragile health. This time, on the contrary, the conclave must find a successor to an energetic pope like John Paul II although very different. The real common line between the two periods is that they are periods of uncertainty and divisions in the Church.

The election of a non-Italian, the first since the Dutchman Adrien VI in 1522, was in itself a revolution. Coming “from a distant country”, said John Paul II. Not so far in fact: a European but on the other side of the iron curtain. The Pope of Hope, recognized for carrying the Christian message everywhere.

More than forty-six years later, Jorge Bergoglio, at the Balcony of the Saint-Pierre Basilica, will describe himself as that “that his cardinal brothers went almost to the end of the world”. Of another continent, from the south. A pope also missionary, very much loved by crowds but who will have cleaned. The 118 voters he made cardinals – out of 135 – come mainly from the south. Who will they vote for? Everything is open.

Mass Europeans

From October 14 to 16, 1978, in the Sistine Chapel, Europe dominated. Half of the presents were European (55) including 22 Italians, against 19 Latin American, 12 Northern Americans, 12 Africans, 9 Asians and 4 Oceanians. Two candidates of the reforming and conservative wings quickly detached themselves: two Italians, one close to the very conciliar Jean-Paul Ier, Giovanni Benelli, and a curator, Giuseppe Siri. The latter estimated, like a lot of its peers, that Vatican Council II, despite or because of its openings, had produced drifts: downward practice, divisions, massive departures of priests, liturgies in rupture with tradition.

The elections succeeded without reaching the majority of two-thirds gave Siri in mind. The conservatives sought to prevent the election of the Liberal Benelli folds: this candidate in the continuity of Paul VI and Jean Paul I was only 57 years old and they feared a long pontificate. Some had nostalgia before the council. And, for lack of being able to elect Siri, they sought a non -Italian figure. Cardinal Vienna, Franz König and the German cardinals worked to convince southern prelates to vote with them.

It was then that the Cardinal of Krakow, Karol Wojtyla, little known outside of Poland, detached himself as an ideal profile: also young (58 years old), energetic, open to the world while being very orthodox. As Jean d’Ormesson wrote in the Figaro“It’s a pastor, but firm, solid, it looks like sports”. Karol Wojtyla – who would have voted in the first round for the Cardinal Reformer – will be elected in the seventh ballot with 99 of the 111 votes.

Towards a conservative pope?

Benelli’s failure reflected the discomfort of part of the sacred college. This camp was calling for reframing in the face of benevolence deemed excessive to the changes in the world. Today, it is the same fight led by Cardinal Robert Sarah and others, nostalgic for the reign of “the athlete of God”, John Paul II very firm on the doctrine, when they judged François floating and contradictory.

The elected official of next week could therefore also be a conservative pastor open to the world at Wojtyla. Many new voters from the South appreciated the proximity of Pasteur of François to the outskirts, but are more conservative on certain societal terrains. From Kerala to the Central African Republic, they also want their own, sometimes neglected problems and claims to be better taken into account. An equation potentially rich in surprises.