Is the Kursk offensive a turning point in the war between Ukraine and Russia?

Trampled Russian flags, cities flying the Ukrainian colours, hundreds of captured soldiers and civilians – no fewer than 120,000! – fleeing their homes… The images reaching us from the Kursk region in southwestern Russia seem unbelievable. Since 6 August, Ukrainian troops have been carrying out an unexpected incursion into their enemy neighbour and have already taken 1,150 km2 of land. General Oleksandr Syrsky, who is leading this offensive, has announced that he wants to create a military administration in the region. A first on Russian soil since the end of the Second World War and unprecedented in a country with nuclear weapons.

The news from the Ukrainian front has been far from glorious since last fall. The war, which is mainly concentrated in Donbass, in eastern Ukraine, is bogged down in a battle of attrition. Faced with the Russian steamroller – methodical and numerically superior troops – the Ukrainian military has not managed to force the enemy back. And the hope of doing so has diminished day by day.

Added to this debacle was another quagmire: American funds, essential for the supply of munitions, were slow to be released, benefiting the Russian bear, which has been able to fire ten times more shells per day in recent months. “This surprise operation comes at a time when we thought Ukraine was being beaten,” observes Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN and author of What awaits us (Ed. Robert Laffont). But what solution has kyiv found to come back in force?

Behind the scenes, the attack was meticulously prepared. “For several months, the army has been building up experienced reserve brigades trained by allied countries. But we wondered why they still hadn’t been deployed…” explains Guillaume Ancel, a former officer, war chronicler and author of the blog Ne pas subier. Once the moment was chosen, rather than sending its troops to Donbass, where they would not have lasted long, kyiv bet on another tactic, like David against Goliath: opening a new front in Russia, where it was not expected.

Thousands of drones

Just under 10,000 men crossed this less protected border. “The Ukrainians arrived without cannons, that had never been seen before,” says Stéphane Audrand, an international risk consultant. Unable to count on a sufficient stock of ammunition, Ukraine had relied on its know-how and decided to increase its drone manufacturing, with the aim of reaching one million new devices by 2024. “Here too, we wondered when the Ukrainian army was going to use them…”, comments Guillaume Ancel. Patience has paid off.

In addition to its ground troops, kyiv has therefore sent thousands of FPV drones – a formidable weapon that can strike targets with great precision – forming a bubble around the Ukrainian troops. It is therefore difficult to locate the soldiers, who are constantly on the move, and especially to approach them. “Usually in this conflict, the military forces deploy a maximum of ten drones,” notes Guillaume Ancel. This is the great achievement of this operation: Ukraine has managed to optimize its resources, which are weaker against the enemy, by perfectly mastering its infantry, artillery and technology.

Replenishing the workforce

A bet with multiple objectives. “This success was important for Ukrainian society, which needed to be galvanized,” observes Stéphane Audrand. Ukraine hopes to replenish its troops with the arrival of new volunteers, for the moment few in number. From a military point of view, it is banking on the redeployment of enemy troops towards the Kursk region, counting on a weakening of the pressure of the Kremlin’s infantry in the Donbass. Even if, for the moment, Moscow is reluctant to move its soldiers.

Finally, kyiv shows a Ukraine that is once again on the offensive in the eyes of the international community. “For some time, the West has been encouraging it to review its demands and negotiate with Putin,” analyzes Marie Dumoulin, director of the “Wider Europe” program of the think tank European Council for Foreign Affairs.

But there is no question for Volodymyr Zelensky to give up Donbass to Russia. While the outcome of this bet is unknown to date, the Kursk offensive could allow Ukraine to weigh more heavily in the upcoming negotiations. In its sights: the next peace summit in Paris in November, to which the Kremlin must be invited. By then, will Vladimir Putin still be destabilized by this surprise operation?