SPAIN. Legislative anticipated, the risky bet of the left

The fear of seeing the exodus to the beaches outweigh the fulfillment of civic duty does not in itself explain these polemical exaggerations. By calling an early poll, the day after his party’s defeat in the May 28 local elections, Pedro “El Guapo” (“the handsome guy”) bet his career on the hope of a rebound. By hastening the deadline, this politician experienced in apparatus games wanted above all to avoid that an internal dispute could be organized and hoped to take advantage of the embarrassment of the right-wing opposition in the face of the progress of the far-right formation Vox . At the risk of seeing the reputation of a cynical manipulator that he drags along, including in his camp, reinforced. The socialist old guard does not forgive him for having, in order to stay in power, made a pact with the Catalan independence parties and the Basque formation EH Bildu, the political arm of the terrorist organization ETA, when he had promised never to do it.

“Common Sense Candidate”

Opposite, the candidate of the right does not arouse much enthusiasm but has the merit of reassuring. Senior civil servant, from a small village hit by the exodus like many campaigns in the interior of the country, Alberto Nunez Feijoo governed for thirteen years without waves Galicia, a rural region anchored on the right. “Predictable”, as he says himself, his centrist, consensual, slightly erased profile and a program without any real break are struggling to provoke the mobilization of the opposing camp. “A candidate of common sense”, he intends to attract the most moderate and elderly voters of the center left, disoriented by the societal laws voted by the coalition of socialists and the far left (Podemos). The “real and effective equality law for transgender people” (which authorizes the change of sex on identity papers by simple administrative declaration from the age of 16, and even from 14 with parental consent), unique in Europe , has troubled even the ranks of feminists. Just like the law against violence against women, so badly put together that it resulted in the early release of sex offenders.

This central positioning seems to be paying off. The polls give the PP a 30-seat lead over the Socialist Party. A solid advance, but insufficient to obtain an absolute majority in the Cortes Generales, the Parliament. This is why Sanchez, one of Emmanuel Macron’s last allies in a Europe that is turning to the right, has no trouble denouncing the risk of a government coalition associating the right and the far right in Madrid, as is the case in Italy. , Finland and Latvia. A prospect that his opponent does not rule out, if necessary. The PP and Vox already jointly govern the regions of Castile and Leon, Extremadura, the Balearic Islands and the Valencian Community. Very conservative on social issues, quick to denounce the danger of uncontrolled Muslim immigration, nostalgic for a more centralized Spain, Vox, founded by a former elected representative of the PP, clashes with repeated verbal excesses à la Donald Trump.

“It is quite clear that Pedro Sanchez hopes for a mobilization at the last moment of left-wing voters”, analyzes political scientist Pablo Simon. In the spring elections, these had abstained more. And, according to the surveys, it is on the left that the undecided remain the most numerous. Opposite, Feijoo also appeals to the useful vote by claiming “the greatest majority” which would allow him to escape the maximalist conditions set by Vox. Which will be the most convincing?

Water, a national obsession

Water has been at the heart of Spanish political debate for generations. While the annual withdrawals are comparable, Spain has half as many resources as France (211 km3/year against 112). However, this water is vital for the agri-food sector (10% of GDP). Problem: it is concentrated in the southeast, in “dry Spain”, while “wet Spain” is in the north.

Faced with drought, the left calls for questioning the agricultural model and is betting on desalination plants on the coast when the right promises a national infrastructure plan (reservoirs and pipes).