What challenges for the new Prime Minister in the National Assembly?

No matter where he looks in the Chamber, Michel Barnier will find few allies there. To his right, the National Rally (RN) is threatening to censure his government, announced on September 21, if it continues the policy led by Emmanuel Macron. To his left, only the Communist Party has agreed to a meeting with the new occupant of Matignon before his general policy statement. And it was only after a standoff led by Gabriel Attal, now leader of the Ensemble deputies in the Assembly, that the former presidential majority agreed to send eight ministers to the former Brexit negotiator. “The divisions that existed since the formation of Macronie in 2017 have widened over time,” says Pierre Bréchon, professor emeritus of political science at Sciences Po Grenoble. Emmanuel Macron’s choices are less well perceived than before by his own camp. “With allies so reluctant to support him, Michel Barnier doesn’t even need opponents.

And yet, there is no shortage of them in this National Assembly divided into three blocs. The pitfalls on the road of the Prime Minister from the ranks of the Republicans are therefore expected to be numerous. The first of these will, of course, be the closing of the 2025 budget. But it is not the only one. It is an understatement to say that the burning issues – pension reform, migration policy and public deficit – divide the deputies. To be voted on by the majority, a text must collect 289 votes. However, the elected representatives of the four groups likely to support the Matignon team only total 213 seats…

Threat of paralysis

Furthermore, the new executive, which also includes 10 Republican ministers and a strong presence of local elected officials, is at the mercy of an alliance of circumstance between the RN and the New Popular Front. It is not excluded that Marine Le Pen’s party will vote for a motion of censure tabled by the NFP to bring down the government. Under these conditions, avoiding institutional paralysis – even before being able to start taking concrete measures – seems a challenge, even for a seasoned leader like Michel Barnier.