for Gilles Kepel, “the upheaval at work is a consequence of October 7”

The game of dominoes at work in the Middle East continues and it is Bashar al-Assad who has paid the price. To what extent does this event reconfigure the region?

The fall of the Syrian regime originates from the confluence of two events: the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Faced with the rebel troops, Bashar al-Assad was only holding on by the ends of a string: air support from Moscow and military support from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Lebanese Hezbollah and Shiite militias from Iraq.

First, the Russian air force was gradually reoriented towards the Ukrainian front. Then, after October 7, 2023, in parallel with the bombings in Gaza on which the whole world focused, Israel destroyed section by section the anti-Zionist “axis of resistance”, this Shiite crescent allying Iran and Iraq. , Syria and Hezbollah.

The terrible losses that Israel inflicted on Hezbollah forced the organization to repatriate its men stationed in Syria to Lebanon. These same soldiers who kept what remained of al-Assad’s army functioning. Under the pressure of the rebels, the Syrian house of cards collapsed. Without him, the axis which linked Tehran to Beirut and the Mediterranean Sea no longer exists. This is a colossal strategic loss for Iran.

Who are these Islamist rebels and who are they supported by?

The Turks and Qataris support Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTC) and what this support indicates is that the new Syrian power is located at the barycenter of the “Brotherhood world” (the Islamist ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood: Editor’s note), that is to say of a political Islam but not jihadist. Moreover, nature having a horror of a vacuum, it has offered us a remarkable symbol. Arriving in Damascus, Abu Mohammed al-Joulani, the leader of the rebels, spoke from the Sunni Umayyad mosque, a place of worship dating from the 8th century, symbol of the first caliphs of the Islamic empire. This act signals to the whole world that the Sunnis are regaining power in Syria (Assad belongs to the Alawite community, a Shiite branch, editor’s note).

Besides the religious aspect, what political interest does Recep Tayyip Erdogan find in it?

On the national political level, the fall of the latter relieves Erdogan. Since 2011, Turkey has welcomed 3.5 million Syrian refugees and these migrants faced popular resentment, particularly from Erdogan’s far-right allies who accused them of competing with the Turkish working class. The queues of refugees wishing to return home at the border between Turkey and Syria are a breath of fresh air for Erdogan.

Is the fall of Bashar al-Assad a snub for Vladimir Putin?

One way or another, it seems that Russia has failed its Syrian ally. It should be noted that we did not witness any bloodshed or major battles. Result: Russian influence in the region is weakening.

In Syria, Russia has two bases, the Hmeimim air base and the Tartous naval base, both on the Mediterranean coast. These positions are essential for Russia because it is from them that it projects its forces in Africa, in the countries where it is gaining influence in recent years (Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso), in particular by dislodging the French army.

The loss of these bases would be a serious blow to it, which is why it is trying to negotiate with the new power in place in Damascus. Coincidentally, this Russian retreat took place at the time when Volodymyr Zelensky met Donald Trump, under the auspices of Emmanuel Macron, on the occasion of the inauguration of the rebuilt Notre-Dame. Enough to strengthen Ukraine a little for future negotiations while Putin appeared in a position of strength until now.

In the wake of the Islamists’ takeover, Israel bombed Syrian territory. For what?

The IDF has launched its largest ever offensive against a foreign country. Its strikes destroyed all Syrian military, naval and air bases. It is a preventive act, probably motivated by the fear that the rebels, whose intentions are not exactly known, could prove hostile towards the Jewish state. The risk that the arsenal of the old regime, and in particular its stock of chemical weapons, would fall into the hands of Islamists on its borders had to be avoided.

In Europe, since 2011, Syrian instability has been characterized by jihadist attacks. Should we fear a rebirth of the Islamic State?

For now, the “pockets” of the Islamic State, which survive in the desert in eastern Syria, represent only the local expression of Arab tribes. It was moreover to prevent their expansion that the Americans carried out 75 air strikes against these targets on the day of the fall of the regime. The whole question is whether, in the event that the Americans leave the region – as Donald Trump promised – the Kurds would be powerful enough to maintain their positions and keep Daesh prisoners in jail.

How does HTS, the rebel group that took power, position itself regarding their fate?

Abu Mohammed al-Joulani claims that he is no longer a jihadist and that his Islamist agenda is exclusively Syrian. Either. He still has a good career in radical Islam, consisting of back and forth between al-Qaeda and the Islamic State… The risk of leniency towards his former brothers in arms cannot be ruled out. If these jihadists are released overnight like prisoners are in the rest of Syria, the West’s concerns will be well founded.

Will Syrian refugees in Europe be able to return home?

There will be returns, but we should not expect a large-scale migratory wave. For Syrian refugees in Europe, the situation is different from those who found refuge in Turkey, where many live in precarious conditions and are rushing to return home. Conversely, the 800,000 Syrians living in Germany have invested significantly in learning the language and in their professional integration. So if they can stay, they will. In Europe, these people have a livelihood; in Syria, a devastated and unstable country awaits them.

On January 20, a new actor will enter the scene: Donald Trump. What can you expect in the area?

Donald Trump is already there, it’s striking. His special envoys are already present in the region; he sent his special envoy for the Middle East, real estate investor Steven Witkoff, to Jerusalem and then to Qatar. The latter informed Israel that it was necessary to release the Israeli hostages before Trump came to power. He wants to twist Netanyahu’s arm in relation to his supremacist allies who refuse any dialogue with Hamas. While he is an unconditional supporter of Israel, it is not certain that he is pro-Netanyahu.

On the Iranian side, the regime’s situation is rocking sharply. The recent meeting between Elon Musk, a supporter of the Trump administration, and the Iranian ambassador to the United Nations, which Tehran denied but which was confirmed to me, suggests that the Iranian regime is also preparing for January 20.