will the asylum pact survive?
Barely appointed to the government, Bruno Retailleau expressed “his regret” that we could not launch a referendum on immigration in France. A few days earlier, the new Minister of the Interior had declared himself in favor of reopening negotiations with the European Union (EU) around the Pact on Migration and Asylum. This text, adopted painfully on May 14, due to multiple differences between Member States, aims to reform Europe’s strategy in this area. It provides for the establishment in two years of a new border screening procedure, as well as a fairer distribution of refugees, today often hosted by the same countries, those of the South. In view of the last elections in Austria, Bruno Retailleau could find a new ally: the far-right FPÖ party, anti-immigration and eurosceptic, came first in the legislative elections of September 29.
A few days earlier, it was Germany which decided to reestablish controls at its borders, after an attack perpetrated by a Syrian who arrived in Germany at the end of December 2022. The decision by Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz, however, contravenes the free movement treaty within the European Union. “The great success of the EU, the Schengen area (established in 1985, Editor’s note) is endangered by such decisions,” thundered Polish Interior Minister Tomasz Siemoniak. Whatever. The day after the announcement from the government across the Rhine, the Netherlands requested a non-participation clause in the pact.
The fear of contagion
The subject, which has been nagging for years, is undermining the EU from within. Jérôme Vignon, advisor to the Jacques-Delors Institute, a think tank dedicated to Europe, does not say he is surprised by the German decision. “Germany is facing a very significant migratory flow, the country welcomed a million Ukrainians in 2022, just seven years after welcoming a million refugees in 2015.” This former member of the European Commission now fears an effect of contagion in neighboring countries. France, Belgium and even Italy could complain about the migratory flow caused by reinforced control of German borders. Michel Barnier, the new French Prime Minister, himself proposed during the Republican primary in 2021 to derogate from European law on immigration “when the fundamental interests of the nation are at stake”.
Under pressure from the far right in Europe, many countries are tempted to decide unilaterally on their migration policy. Which would pit them against the European Court, responsible for ensuring that the rules are respected. “It is she who would sanction the States engaging in unhealthy competition,” explains Jérôme Vignon. In the meantime, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is jubilant. This great defender of a tightening of European migration policy greeted the decision of the German Chancellor, whose political ideas he does not share, with an ironic “Welcome to the club”.