Netanyahu relaunches the offensive with the operation “Chariots de Gédéon”

And now the operation “Gédéon carts” … nineteen months after the massacres of Israeli civilians of October 7, 2023 perpetrated by Hamas, the Islamist organization which then controlled the Gaza Strip, Benyamin Netanyahu sink into an endless war. Even though he had repeatedly promised a rapid victory. The Israeli Prime Minister announced a new phase in the first days of May. Official war goals have been asserted: the destruction of Hamas’ military and government capacities and “the release of all hostages”.

In order to win the decisive victory that has so far failed, the Israeli plan provides for “the massive evacuation of the entire Gazaouie population of the combat zones” towards the south of the territory: it is a question of separating civilians from the armed fighters from Hamas to be able to destroy the latter more easily. The blockade of humanitarian aid, denounced by humanitarian organizations, is maintained as long as this separation has not taken place.

Is this logic of enemy terrorist enemy realistic? Or is the overlap of armed militiamen and the civilian population inextricable? And what is the ultimate goal of Benyamin Netanyahu concerning Gaza? The opportunity to maintain a state of war to escape legal proceedings against him in Israel does not explain everything.

The dreadful human assessment – more than 51,000 deaths, including more than 15,000 children according to UNICEF – proves that Hamas has seen its abilities lessened, without being eliminated. Explicated explicitly at the start of the war, the choice of a sustainable military occupation of Gaza has established itself at the top of the state.

A perilous option for Israel. First of all because it supposes a massive shipment of soldiers while reservists are exhausted by long months of mobilization. Then, because the cost for the national economy becomes heavy: this conflict is the most expensive ever known by the Jewish state. According to the governor of the central bank, he could amount to $ 67 billion. Finally, because according to the Geneva Convention, Israel as an occupying power should take charge of the entire survival of the inhabitants of the enclave.

Empty Gaza from its inhabitants

The Hebrew state has already occupied Gaza between 1967 and 2005, before concluding that its total withdrawal of the territory. Twenty years later, the state of mind is different. Part of the Israeli right and far right dream of a massive, if not total, exodus of the Arab population outside this territory. “Gaza will be fully destroyed and civilians, sent to the South (…) from where they will start to go in large numbers to third countries,” said Bezalel Smotrich (religious Zionist party, extreme right), the Minister of Finance, during a conference on Jewish colonization in the West Bank.

Officially, the government is limited to supporting any “voluntary emigration”. The extravagant statements of Donald Trump evoking a future Gaza transformed into a near-East Côte d’Azur with casinos and luxury hotels, so unrealistic, were received by this part of the political class as an encouragement. In practice, however, neither Egypt, the only other neighboring country, nor the Arab states of the neighborhood would take their assistance to what would be perceived, including in the West, as an ethnic cleaning. Emptying Gaza of its 2 million inhabitants of residents is fantasy.

Make Trump a safe ally

Admittedly, the Israeli head of government can now hope to count on a weight ally: Donald Trump. On February 10, the American president had threatened Hamas, if he did not release his hostages, to “unleash hell”. The consultation between the two men is such that Netanyahu will only trigger the operation “Carts of Gédéon” only the tour of the tenant of the White House in the Persian Gulf, scheduled for May 13 to 16, ended. But Trump is anything but an unconditional ally. And he has already shown his ability to make upslides as sudden as they are acrobatics.

However, the billionaire does not want to alienate the wealthy power of the Gulf, in business relations with his family. His support displayed in Israel did not prevent him from announcing, on May 6, a non-aggression agreement with the Houthis rebels of Yemen, without imposing their bombings on Tel Aviv.

On Iranian nuclear, too, the approach is different. While Benyamin Netanyahu is ready for targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear installations – which involves American military support – Trump refuses any option in this sense and relies on a diplomatic solution with Tehran. On Gaza too, under pressure from his Arab friends, he could turn. And leave Israel alone.